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223 个结果
  • 简介:Thirty-ninewomenofreproductiveagesufferingfromchronicpelvicinflammatorydisease(PID)foratleasttwoyears,previouslytreatedpharmacologicallywithnoeffect,wereenrolledinafour-weektherapeuticprotocolconsistingof12acupuncturetreatmentsperformedwiththefrequencyofthreeperweek.Ineachfemalepatientatbaselineandafterthestudy,painscoreandthefollowingparametersinbloodserumwereevaluated:concentrationofimmunoglobulinM(IgM),albumins,alphal-globulins,alpha2-globulinsandgamma-globulins,erythrocytesedimentationrate(ESR)andwhitebloodcell(WBC)count.Duringthestudy,weobtainedasignificantdropinESRandIgMlevelstogetherwithariseingamma-globulinconcentrations.Asignificantdecrease(from4.89±0.82to0.63±1.05)inpainscorewas

  • 标签: 针刺治疗 免疫功能 患者 盆腔 慢性 妇女
  • 简介:Sheng-Mai-San(SMS),awell-knownChinesemedicinalplantformula,iswidelyusedforthetreatmentofcardiacdiseasescharacterizedbydeficiencyofQiandYinsyndrome.Amousechronicintermittenthypoxia(CIH)modelwasestablishedtomimictheprimaryclinicalfeaturesofdeficiencyofQiandYinsyndrome.MiceexperiencedCIHfor28days(nadir7%topeak8%oxygen,20minperday),resultinginleftventricle(LV)dysfunctionandstructureabnormalities.AfteradministrationofSMS(0.55,1.1,and5.5g·kg-1·d-1)forfourweeks,improvedcardiacfunctionwasobserved,asindicatedbytheincreaseintheejectionfractionfromtheLVonechocardiography.SMSalsopreservedthestructuralintegrityoftheLVagainsteccentrichypotrophy,tissuevacuolization,andmitochondrialinjuryasmeasuredbyhistology,electronmicroscopy,andultrasoundassessments.Mechanistically,theantioxidanteffectsofSMSweredemonstrated;SMSwasabletosuppressmitochondrialapoptosisasindicatedbythereductionofseveralpro-apoptoticfactors(Bax,cytochromec,andcleavedcaspase-3)andup-regulationoftheanti-apoptosisfactorBcl-2.Inconclusion,theseresultsdemonstratethatSMStreatmentcanprotectthestructureandfunctionoftheLVandthattheprotectiveeffectsofthisformulaareassociatedwiththeregulationofthemitochondrialapoptosispathway.

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  • 简介:TheexpressionofIL-4inaratmodelofchronicpulmonaryinfectionbiofilmformationinducedbyPseudomonasaeruginosawasinvestigated,inwhichSPFWisterratswereinfectedviatracheawith0.1mlP.aeruginosastrainPAO579(10~9CFU/ml)inalginatebeadsortheplanktonicformofthisbacterialstrain(10~9CFU/ml),andon3,7and14dafterinfection,thebacteriologicalandpathologicalchangeswereobservedaswellastheexpressionofthecytokineIL-4wasdetermined.ItwasdemonstratedthatthecountofCFUperlungtissueincaseofbacteriainalginatebeadswassignificantlyhigherthanthatofbacteriainplanktonicform,withmoreseveregrosspathologicchangesandinflammatoryreactionsinthealginatebeadgroupincomparisonwiththatoftheplanktonicforms(P=0.002,P=0.004andP=0.002,respectively).Inaddition,theexpressionofIL-4inthealginatebeadgroupwasalsohigherthanthatintheplanktonicform(P=0.02,P=0.02andP=0.022,respectively).Apositivecorre-lationbetweenthelevelofIL-4expressionandthegrosslungpathologyinalginatebeadgroupexistedasdemonstratedbysimpleregressionanalysis(r=0.78,P<0.02).Itisconcludedthatthechronicpul-monaryinfectionwithbiofilmformationinducedbyP.aeruginosatendstohavetheprioritytotheTh2immuneresponse.

  • 标签: 慢性肺部感染 症状 白介素 免疫力
  • 简介:瞄准:估计临床,生物化学并且virological在长期的丙肝(CHC)的长期的结果有在加ribavirin的peginterferon(PEG-IFN)以后的持续virological回答(SVR)的病人联合治疗。方法:有在有PEG-IFN正ribavirin的治疗以后的SVR的一百和53个病人在一个单个西班牙的中心在5年的后续研究被包括,基于标准临床的实践。临床的回忆,生物化学的分析,丙肝病毒RNA和alpha-fetoprotein测量,ultrasonography和短暂elastography每年被执行。结果:153个病人的吝啬的后续经期是76??敦瑥吗?

  • 标签: 丙型肝炎病毒 利巴韦林 聚乙二醇 病毒学 干扰素 患者
  • 简介:BackgroundChronickidneydisease(CKD)patientsareathighriskofatherosclerosis.Structuralandelasticchangesofcarotidarterywallreflecttherangeanddegreeofatherosclerosisinperipheralarteries,whichcanbeacquiredbyultrasoundradiofrequency-datatechniqueautomaticallyandprecisely.MethodsAtotalof66CKDpatientswithnegativeresultsonroutinecarotidarteryultrasoundexaminationwereenrolled,and30healthyphysicalexamineeswereselectedascontrols.Patientsweredividedinto3groupsaccordingtoCKDstage:stage1-2,stage3-4andstage5.Clinicalcharacteristicsandthelaboratoryresultswereacquired.Intima-mediathickness(IMT)andcompliancecoefficient(CC)ofcommoncarotidarteryweremeasuredbyultrasoundradiofrequencydatatechnique(QIMTandQAS).PredictorsofIMTandCCwereanalyzedrespectively.ResultsAmongthe66patients,15wereonstage1-2,15onstage3-4and36onstage5accordingtoeGFR.ThecommoncarotidarteryIMT(CCIMT)ofalltheCKDgroupsexceptpatientsonstage1-2wassignificantlyincreasedwhencomparedwithcontrols.TheCCofcarotidarterysignificantlywasdecreasedineveryCKDgroupcomparedwithcontrols.AgeandCKDstageweresignificantpredictorsofCCIMTandCCinCKDpatients(P<0.05).AgingandadvancedCKDstagewereassociatedwithincreasedCCIMT(OR=4.855and4.969)anddecreasedCC(OR=32.178and14.068).ConclusionsRadiofrequency-datatechniquecandetectthesmallchangesofstructureandelasticityofcarotidarterywallinCKDpatients.CKDpatientshaveincreasedIMTanddecreasedelasticityofcarotidarterycomparedwithhealthysubjects.AgingandadvancedCKDstageareassociatedwithincreasedCCIMTanddecreasedCC.

  • 标签: 射频技术 超声检查 颈动脉 肾脏病 患者 弹性
  • 简介:AbstractBackground:The incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) complicated with invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA) has increased in the last two decades. The mechanism underpinning susceptibility to and high mortality of COPD complicated with IPA is unclear, and the role of T helper cells 17 (Th17 cells) in the compound disease remains unknown. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the function of Th17 cells in COPD combined with IPA.Methods:COPD, IPA, and COPD+IPA mouse models were established in male wild type C57/BL6 mice. The amounts of Th17 cells and retinoic acid-related orphan receptors γt (RORγt) were tested by flow cytometry. Then, serum interleukin (IL)-17 and IL-23 levels were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in the control, COPD, IPA and COPD+IPA groups. In addition, COPD+IPA was induced in IL-17 knockout (KO) mice, for determining the role of Th17 cells in COPD+IPA.Results:Compared with the COPD group, the COPD+IPA group showed higher amounts of blood RORγt ([35.09 ± 16.12]% vs. [17.92 ± 4.91]%, P = 0.02) and serum IL-17 (17.96 ± 9.59 pg/mL vs. 8.05 ± 4.44 pg/mL, P = 0.02), but blood ([5.18 ± 1.09]% vs. [4.15 ± 0.87]%, P= 0.28) and lung levels of Th17 cells ([1.98 ± 0.83]% vs. [2.03 ± 0.98]%, P= 0.91), lung levels of RORγt ([9.58 ± 6.93]% vs. [9.63 ± 5.98]%, P = 0.49) and serum IL-23 (51.55 ± 27.82 pg/mL vs. 68.70 ± 15.20 pg/mL, P = 0.15) showed no significant differences. Compared with the IPA group, the COPD+IPA group displayed lower amounts of blood ([5.18 ± 1.09]% vs. [9.21 ± 3.56]%, P = 0.01) and lung Th17 cells ([1.98 ± 0.83]% vs. [6.29 ± 1.11]%, P = 0.01) and serum IL-23 (51.55 ± 27.82 pg/mL vs. 154.90 ± 64.60 pg/mL, P = 0.01) and IL-17 (17.96 ± 9.59 pg/mL vs. 39.81 ± 22.37 pg/mL, P = 0.02), while comparable blood ([35.09 ± 16.12]% vs. [29.86 ± 15.42]%, P = 0.25) and lung levels of RORγt ([9.58 ± 6.93]% vs. [15.10 ± 2.95]%, P = 0.18) were found in these two groups. Finally, Aspergillus load in IL-17 KO COPD+IPA mice was almost 2 times that of COPD+IPA mice (1,851,687.69 ± 944,480.43 vs. 892,958.10 ± 686,808.80, t= 2.32, P = 0.02).Conclusion:These findings indicate that Th17 cells might be involved in the pathogenesis of COPD combined with IPA, with IL-17 likely playing an antifungal role.

  • 标签: T helper cells 17 Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA)
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  • 简介:我们比较了与长期的前列腺炎症候群(每秒字符数)联系的棒状细菌细菌的潜在的phenotypic性质,例如溶解酵素(SIL)的能分泌的禁止者和血小板microbicidal蛋白质(SIPMP)的能分泌的禁止者。一个总数110临床棒状细菌孤立与每秒字符数从健康的人和人的精液孤立的细菌被测试。SIPMP生产被禁止血小板microbicidal测试对杆菌subtilis的蛋白质(PMP)bioactivity,并且被表示为PMP的抑制的百分比杀菌活动。SIL生产被对小球菌lysodeikticus禁止溶解酵素活动测试并且每使失去活性的溶解酵素的毫升在microgram被表示。每秒字符数紧张(58.7%对19.2%)的一个显著地更高的比例与非每秒字符数紧张相比是SIPMP积极的(P<0.01)。测试的CPS紧张,77.8%与34%非每秒字符数相比是SIL积极的孤立(P<0.05)。这些结果建议例如,每秒字符数的诊断不应该完全依靠古典参数鉴定并且微生物,而是这些参数的功能的意义数必须被估计,可能由不同细菌的substrains的集中,有病原的性质的机会主义的微生物的察觉,例如到cationic抗菌剂的显著抵抗,禁止抗菌剂的肽,或能力招待防卫因素。

  • 标签: 慢性前列腺炎 细菌浓度 综合征 男性 棒形 健康
  • 简介:在反脉管的endothelial生长的一个年以后与有斑点的浮肿的分辨率和foveal消沉的恢复在眼睛报导foveal厚度减小为包含中心的糖尿病的有斑点的浮肿(DME)的因素(anti-VEGF)治疗.METHODSFoveal厚度与光连贯断层摄影术被估计决定中央子字段foveal厚度(CSFT)并且在有DME的42只眼睛的有斑点的体积(CSFT>275湥獴愠?潣灭牡摥琠?敨污桴?潣瑮潲?牧畯?

  • 标签: 糖尿病 有斑点的浮肿 BEVACIZUMAB RANIBIZUMAB 光连贯断层摄影术 中央子字段 foveal 厚度
  • 简介:AbstractBackground:Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common public health problem worldwide. Recent studies have reported that socioeconomic status (SES) is related to the incidence of COPD. This study aimed to investigate the association between SES and COPD among adults in Jiangsu province, China, and to determine the possible direct and indirect effects of SES on the morbidity of COPD.Methods:A cross-sectional study was conducted among adults aged 40 years and above between May and December of 2015 in Jiangsu province, China. Participants were selected using a multistage sampling approach. COPD, the outcome variable, was diagnosed by physicians based on spirometry, respiratory symptoms, and risk factors. Education, occupation, and monthly family average income (FAI) were used to separately indicate SES as the explanatory variable. Mixed-effects logistic regression models were introduced to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for examining the SES-COPD relationship. A pathway analysis was conducted to further explore the pulmonary function impairment of patients with different SES.Results:The mean age of the 2421 participants was 56.63 ± 9.62 years. The prevalence of COPD was 11.8% (95% CI: 10.5%-13.1%) among the overall sample population. After adjustment for age, gender, residence, outdoor and indoor air pollution, body weight status, cigarette smoking, and potential study area-level clustering effects, educational attainment was negatively associated with COPD prevalence in men; white collars were at lower risk (OR: 0.60, 95% CI: 0.43-0.83) of experiencing COPD than blue collars; compared with those within the lower FAI subgroup, participants in the upper (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49-0.97) tertiles were less likely to experience COPD. Such negative associations between all these three SES indicators and COPD were significant among men only. Education, FAI, and occupation had direct or indirect effects on pulmonary function including post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC), FEV1, FVC, and FEV1 percentage of predicted. Education, FAI, and occupation had indirect effects on pulmonary function indices of all participants mainly through smoking status, indoor air pollution, and outdoor air pollution. We also found that occupation could affect post-bronchodilator FEV1/FVC through body mass index.Conclusions:Education, occupation, and FAI had an adverse relationship with COPD prevalence in Jiangsu province, China. SES has both direct and indirect associations with pulmonary function impairment. SES is of great significance for COPD morbidity. It is important that population-based COPD prevention strategies should be tailored for people with different SES.

  • 标签: Socioeconomic status Family average income Smoking Air pollution Body mass index Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
  • 简介:AbstractBackground:Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has seizure-suppressing effects but the molecular mechanisms underlying its therapeutic action remain unclear. This study aimed to systematically elucidate the mechanisms underlying DBS-induced seizure suppression at a molecular level.Methods:We established a macaque model of mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (mTLE), and continuous high-frequency hippocampus DBS (hip-DBS) was applied for 3 months. The effects of hip-DBS on hippocampus gene expression were examined using high-throughput microarray analysis followed by bioinformatics analysis. Moreover, the microarray results were validated using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) and Western blot analyses.Results:The results showed that chronic hip-DBS modulated the hippocampal gene expression. We identified 4119 differentially expressed genes and assigned these genes to 16 model profiles. Series test of cluster analysis showed that profiles 5, 3, and 2 were the predominant expression profiles. Moreover, profile 5 was mainly involved in focal adhesion and extracellular matrix-receptor interaction pathway. Nine dysregulated genes (Arhgap5, Col1a2, Itgb1, Pik3r1, Lama4, Fn1, Col3a1, Itga9, and Shc4) and three genes (Col1a2, Itgb1, and Flna) in these two pathways were further validated by qRT-PCR and Western blot analyses, respectively, which showed a concordance.Conclusion:Our findings suggest that hip-DBS could markedly reverse mTLE-induced abnormal gene expression. Findings from this study establish the basis for further investigation of the underlying regulatory mechanisms of DBS for mTLE.

  • 标签: Deep brain stimulation Gene expression profile Hippocampus Temporal lobe epilepsy
  • 简介:AbstractPulmonary rehabilitation (PR) is a cornerstone management for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). International respiratory societies defined PR is more than "just an exercise program" ; it is a comprehensive care delivered by a team of dedicated healthcare professionals with a strong emphasis on long-term health-enhancing Behaviors. However, "Uncertainty" exists with varied reasons for the political and geographical barriers of referral, uptake, attendance, and completion of PR in both primary and secondary care. Besides, COVID-19 pandemic has sparked many global controversies and challenges on pulmonary rehabilitation service delivery. Post-COVID-19 guidelines emphasize on integrated care rehabilitation for patients with COPD. Thus, this concise review intends to understand the gaps in United Kingdom healthcare policies, practices, and PR services resources. To date, there is no clear consensus on PR integrated care model pathway to address the unmet needs, measure the health and social care disparities; adds to the disease burden of COPD. Based on the culmination of evidence, this perspective offers a theoretical framework of PR integrated service model, a pathway to deliver high-value personalized care to patients with COPD.

  • 标签: COVID-19 Pulmonary rehabilitation Health service design Chronic respiratory disease Integrated care
  • 简介:AbstractBackground:Hepatitis B core-related antigen (HBcrAg) is a promising disease-monitoring marker for chronic hepatitis B (CHB). We investigated correlations between HBcrAg with antiviral efficacy and virological and histological variables.Methods:One hundred and forty-five CHB patients from the mainland of China between August 2013 and September 2016 who underwent liver biopsy received entecavir therapy and had paired liver biopsy at 78 weeks. We analyzed correlations between HBcrAg and virological and histological variables in hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive and HBeAg-negative patients. We also explored the predictors of HBeAg loss after 78 weeks of antiviral therapy. Pearson correlation analysis and logistic forward stepwise regression were the main statistic methods.Results:HBeAg-positive patients (n = 93) had higher baseline HBcrAg (median 7.4 vs. 5.3 log10 U/mL P < 0.001) and greater HBcrAg declines (median 1.6 vs. 0.9 log10 U/mL P= 0.007) than HBeAg-negative patients after 78 weeks of therapy. At baseline, HBcrAg correlated with hepatitis B virus (HBV) DNA in both HBeAg-positive (r = 0.641, P < 0.001) and -negative patients (r = 0.616, P < 0.001), with hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) in HBeAg-positive patients (r = 0.495, P < 0.001), but not with anti-hepatitis B virus core antibody (anti-HBc). Weak correlations existed between HBcrAg, histology activity index (HAI; r = 0.232, P= 0.025), and Ishak fibrosis score (r= -0.292, P= 0.005) in HBeAg-positive patients. At 78 weeks, significant correlations existed only between HBcrAg and anti-HBc in HBeAg-positive (r = -0.263, P = 0.014) and HBeAg-negative patients (r= -0.291, P= 0.045). Decreased HBcrAg significantly correlated with reduced HBV DNA (r= 0.366, P= 0.001; r= 0.626, P < 0.001) and HBsAg (r = 0.526, P = 0.001; r = 0.289, P = 0.044) in HBeAg-positive and -negative patients, respectively, and with reduced HAI in HBeAg-positive patients (r = 0.329, P = 0.001). Patients with HBeAg loss (n = 29) showed a larger reduction in HBcrAg than those without (median 2.3 vs. 1.3 log10 U/mL, P = 0.001). In multivariate analysis, decreased HBcrAg was an independent predictor of HBeAg loss (P = 0.005).Conclusions:HBcrAg reflects viral replication and protein production. Decreased HBcrAg could predict HBeAg loss after antiviral therapy.Trial registration:Clinical Trials.gov: NCT01962155; https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01962155?term=NCT01962155&draw=2&rank=1

  • 标签: Chronic hepatitis B Hepatitis B core-related antigen Hepatitis B e antigen Antiviral therapy
  • 简介:长期的前列腺炎能影响精子质量。以前的研究证明了transrectal微波thermotherapy(TRMT)在精子上与长期的前列腺炎,而是效果在病人导致征兆的地势小心地没被调查。当过去常与长期的nonbacterial前列腺炎对待病人时,这研究在症状的消除和精子的质量上评估TRMT的影响。六十个病人在学习被注册。TRMT治疗在5天被管理,1h每天。精液检查被执行预告的处理并且立即在5天的治疗的结论。另外,它被重复1个月,3个月,和6个月以后。治疗症状消除功效用健康长期的前列腺炎症状索引(NIH-CPSI)的国家研究所被评估。在治疗以后,全面NIH-CPSI分数与预告的处理的那些相比是更低的。另外,在表示prostatic分泌物的白血房间和卵磷脂在治疗以后是正常的。精子计数在治疗以后到23.8%3个月被减少,精子活动性被10.3%在治疗以后立即减少,并且精子畸形被17.2%增加。精子体积和PH没被影响。然而,在治疗和畸形性率在在治疗以后的6个月也是更低的以后,精子质量恢复了。TRMT是为有nonbacterial的病人的一种有利、安全的治疗选择长期的前列腺炎。它能在精子质量上减轻病人症状和影响在短期。

  • 标签: 慢性前列腺炎 精子质量 短期影响 微波热疗 细菌性 患者
  • 简介:AbstractCOVID-19 has become a pandemic and it has already spread to at least 171 countries/regions. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a global public health problem with a total of approximately 850 million patients with CKD worldwide and 119.5 million in China. Severe COVID-19 infection may damage the kidney and cause acute tubular necrosis, leading to proteinuria, hematuria and elevated serum creatinine. Since the SARS-CoV-2 enters the cells by binding to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor, some doctors question its ability to increase the risk and severity of developing COVID-19. Neither clinical data nor basic scientific evidence supports this assumption. Therefore, patients who take angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker are not advised to change their therapy. Patients with CKD are generally the elderly population suffering from multiple comorbidities. Moreover, some patients with CKD might need to take glucocorticoids and immunosuppressants. Dialysis patients are recurrently exposed to a possible contaminated environment because their routine treatment usually requires three dialysis sessions per week. Considering all the above reasons, patients with CKD are more vulnerable to COVID-19 than the general population. The development of COVID-19 may worsen the impaired kidney function and further lead to rapid deterioration of kidney function and even death. Strict comprehensive protocols should be followed to prevent the spread of COVID-19 among patients with CKD. In this review, we provide some practical management recommendations for health care providers, patients with CKD, dialysis patients and dialysis facilities.

  • 标签: Coronavirus disease 2019 COVID-19 Novel coronavirus Chronic kidney disease Management
  • 简介:AIM:ToinvestigateapathophysiologicalroleofcathepsinW(CatW),aputativethiol-dependentcysteineprotease,whichisspecificallyexpressedincytotoxiclymphocytes,indifferenttypesofchronicinflammationofthegastricmucosa.METHODS:GastricandduodenalbiopsiesofpatientswithHelicobacterpylori(Hpylori)-associatedactivegastritis(Hp,n=19),chemicallyinducedreactivegastritis(CG,n=17),autoimmuneatrophicgastritis(AIG,n=20),lymphocyticcorpusgastritis(LG,n=29),celiacdisease(CD,n=10),andcorrespondingcontrols(n=24)wereanalyzedbyimmunohistochemistryfortheexpressionofCatWandCD45.Furthermore,immunohistochemicaldoublestainingwithanti-CD3andanti-cathepsinwasperformedforthesamplesofAIG.RESULTS:MedianvaluesofCatW-expressingcellsamongCD45-positiveimmunecellswerebetween2%and6%fornormalgastricmucosa,CG,andLG,whereasthecorrespondingvaluewassignificantlyincreasedforAIG(24.7%,P<0.001)andsignificantlydecreasedforHP(0.7%,P<0.05).Doublestainingwithanti-CD3andantiCatWantibodiesrevealedthat>90%ofCatW-expressingcellsingastricmucosaofAIGwereTcells.DuodenalmucosahadsignificantlymoreCatW/CD45-positivecellsthannormalgastricmucosa(median:17.8%vs2%,P<0.01).ThecorrespondingproportionofCatW/CD45-positivecellswasdecreasedinCDcomparedtoduodenalmucosa(median:2.1%vs17.8%,P<0.05).CONCLUSION:TheoppositefindingsregardingthepresenceofCatW-positivecellsinAIG(increase)andCD(decrease)reflectsthedifferentcellularcompositionofimmunecellsinvolvedinthepathogenesisofthesediseases.

  • 标签: 组织蛋白酶 T细胞 自身免疫性萎缩性胃炎 慢性胃炎
  • 简介:AbstractBackground:The basis of individualized treatment should be individualized mortality risk predictive information. The present study aimed to develop an online individual mortality risk predictive tool for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients based on a random survival forest (RSF) algorithm.Methods:The current study retrospectively enrolled ACLF patients from the Department of Infectious Diseases of The First People’s Hospital of Foshan, Shunde Hospital of Southern Medical University, and Jiangmen Central Hospital. Two hundred seventy-six consecutive ACLF patients were included in the present study as a model cohort (n = 276). Then the current study constructed a validation cohort by drawing patients from the model dataset based on the resampling method (n = 276). The RSF algorithm was used to develop an individual prognostic model for ACLF patients. The Brier score was used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of prognostic models. The weighted mean rank estimation method was used to compare the differences between the areas under the time-dependent ROC curves (AUROCs) of prognostic models.Results:Multivariate Cox regression identified hepatic encephalopathy (HE), age, serum sodium level, acute kidney injury (AKI), red cell distribution width (RDW), and international normalization index (INR) as independent risk factors for ACLF patients. A simplified RSF model was developed based on these previous risk factors. The AUROCs for predicting 3-, 6-, and 12-month mortality were 0.916, 0.916, and 0.905 for the RSF model and 0.872, 0.866, and 0.848 for the Cox model in the model cohort, respectively. The Brier scores were 0.119, 0.119, and 0.128 for the RSF model and 0.138, 0.146, and 0.156 for the Cox model, respectively. The nonparametric comparison suggested that the RSF model was superior to the Cox model for predicting the prognosis of ACLF patients.Conclusions:The current study developed a novel online individual mortality risk predictive tool that could predict individual mortality risk predictive curves for individual patients. Additionally, the current online individual mortality risk predictive tool could further provide predicted mortality percentages and 95% confidence intervals at user-defined time points.

  • 标签: Random survival forest Acute-on-chronic liver failure Prognosis