简介：Inthisstudy,twopossiblepersistentanomaliesoftheMadden-JulianOscillationmode(MJO)arefoundinthesummerseason(persistentlyPacificactiveandIndianOceanactive),andanindexissettodefinetheintensityofthetwomodes.TheyareprovedtohavehighstatisticalcorrelationstothelaterENSOeventsintheautumnandwinterseasons:WhenpersistentanomalyofMJOhappensinthePacificOceaninsummer,ElNinoeventsareofteninducedduringtheautumnandwinterseasonsofthatyear.However,duringtheotherMJOmodewhenthesummerpersistentanomalyofMJOoccursintheIndianOcean,LaNinaeventsoftenfollowinstead.TheanalysisoftheatmosphericcirculationfieldindicatesthatpersistentanomalyofMJOcanprobablyaffecttheentireEquatorialPacificcirculation,andresultsinwindstressanomalies.Thewindstressanomaliescouldexcitewarmorcoldwatermasseswhichpropagateeastwardsatthesubsurfaceocean.TheaccumulationofwarmorcoldsubsurfacewaterintheEquatorialEasternPacificOceanmayeventuallyleadtotheformationofanENSO.

简介：利用中国科学院大气物理研究所设计发展的具有较高分辨率的热带太平洋和全球大气耦合环流模式，设计了一个初始化方案，建立了ＥＮＳＯ预测系统，进行了系统性的预测试验。预测结果检验评估表明，该预测系统表现出较强的预报能力，赤道中东太平洋地区（Ｎｉｎｏ３和Ｎｉｎｏ３４）海表温度距平预报相关技巧高于０５２的预报可持续１８个月，该预测系统可应用到试验性的海温预测实践中。利用该系统对１９９７／１９９８年ＥＮＳＯ进行了实际预测，表明预测是成功的，预测的海温距平已提供给今年我国夏季降水预测使用，取得了良好的预测效果。

简介：用分析，数据由大气的研究的环境预言/公民中心的美国国家中心提供了，在ElNino南部的摆动(ENSO)周期之间的潜在的关系和在从1950～2008的欧亚大陆(乌拉尔，贝加尔湖，和鄂霍次克海)的三个关键区域的堵住的高度被分析。500hPageopotential高度地的合成分析在ElNino的冬季在ENSO的不同阶段期间揭示那(在)年，有在三个关键区域的geopotential高度的重要否定异例。在拉·尼娜(行)年的冬季，在另一方面，geopotential高度的重要积极异例在东方乌拉尔，贝加尔湖，和鄂霍次克海被观察。在夏天，鄂霍次克海展出积极异例，它在一行年的发展中的阶段期间由学生的t测试在90%的信心水平是重要的。在一EN年的发展中的阶段，在500hPa的geopotential高度地表明积极(否定)在贝加尔湖(乌拉尔和鄂霍次克海)的异例，当在500hPa的geopotential高度地展出时积极(否定)在乌拉尔和鄂霍次克海(贝加尔湖)的异例在腐烂的阶段期间在并且行年。然而，这些反常在一在年发展是不足道的，在一腐烂的行年的年，和夏天腐烂。由在ENSO周期的不同阶段期间分析500hPageopotential高度地，案例研究的结果与合成analysis.Annual一般水准堵住的那些一致，这被观察同样与合成分析和案例研究从1950～2008.Combined在ENSO的不同阶段期间被检验，结果显示在三个关键区域的堵住被压制(提高)在冬季期间在(行)年。在夏天，在三个关键区域的堵住上的ENSO的影响在冬季不象那一样重要。显然，开发行可以在堵住上在Okhotsk.Influence因素提高堵住各种各样、复杂。这份报纸显示堵住上的ENSO的影响不能被忽视，并且它对作为一个潜在的信号的相关运作的预报关键。

简介：在中国和ENSO事件和NinoZ的热带气旋(TC)在1951～2005期间索引的landfalling的数据被用来从7月在China.ENSO事件学习在ENSO和landfallingTC之间的关系到9月在中国在landfallingTC上有明显的效果。当ElNi(n)o全部坚持这些月时，landfallingTC的频率是不到正常，landfallingTC的季节更短，乍见陆地首先每年是以后的，乍见陆地上次每年更早，并且吝啬的紧张更强壮，更多的landfallingTC完成台风的紧张。否则为LaNi(n)是真的一。那是说，从7月演变到9月的ENSO事件在中国为landfallingTC显示出强壮的预言信号。当当NinoZ索引通过9月在7月保持中立时，ENSO在一年里结束或开始时，landfallingTC也有ENSO的一些影响。ElNi(n)o事件比LaNifia事件在landfallingTC上有更重要的效果。

简介：Interannualvariabilityoflandfallingtropicalcyclones(TCs)inChinaduring1960-2010isinvestigated.Byusingthemethodofpartialleastsquaresregression(PLS-regression),canonicalENSOandENSOModokiareidentifiedtobethefactorsthatcontributetotheinterannualvariabilityoflandfallingTCs.ElNioModokiyearsareassociatedwithagreater-than-averagefrequencyoflandfallingTCsinChina,butreversedincanonicalElNioyears.SignificantdifferenceingenesislocationsoflandfallingTCsinChinaforthetwokindsofElNiophasesoccursdominantlyinthenortherntropicalwesternNorthPacific(WNP).Thepatternsoflow-levelcirculationanomaliesandoutgoinglongwaveradiation(OLR)anomaliesassociatedwithlandfallingTCgenesiswithdifferenttypesofElNiophasesareexamined.DuringcanonicalElNioyears,abroadzonalbandofpositiveOLRanomaliesdominatesthetropicalWNP,whilethecirculationanomaliesexhibitameridionallysymmetricaldipolepatternwithananticyclonicanomalyinthesubtropicsandacyclonicanomalynearthetropics.InElNioModokiyears,avastregionofnegativeOLRanomalies,roughlytothesouthof25°Nwithastronglarge-scalecyclonicanomalyoverthetropicalWNP,providesamorefavorableconditionforlandfallingTCgenesiscomparedtoitscounterpartduringcanonicalElNioyears.FormorelandfallingTCsformedinthenortherntropicalWNPinElNioModokiyears,therearemoreTCsmakinglandfallonthenortherncoastofChinainElNioModokiyearsthanincanonicalElNioyears.ThenumberoflandfallingTCsisslightlyabovenormalincanonicalLaNiayears.EnhancedconvectionisfoundintheSouthChinaSea(SCS)andthewestofthetropicalWNP,whichresultsinlandfallingTCsformingmorewestwardincanonicalLaNiayears.DuringLaNiaModokiyears,thelandfallingTCfrequencyarebelownormal,owingtoanunfavorableconditionforTCgenesispersistinginabroadzonalbandfrom5°Nto25°N.SincethewesternNorthPacificsubtropicalhi

简介：ElNi的影响?在热带太平洋上的对流地联合的凯尔文波浪上的o南部的摆动(ENSO)被在东方太平洋(EP)ElNi比较绝对温标波浪活动调查?o，中央太平洋(CP)ElNi?o，并且LaNi?一年，分别地到30年(19822011)意味着统计。在这研究的对流地联合的凯尔文波浪被过滤的225天的通带的实验直角的功能(文件结束)的二个领先的模式代表每天出去的longwave放射(OLR)与3或4的估计的带的wavenumber，8天的时期，并且东方宣传17ms1的速度。在绝对温标波浪活动的ENSO的最重要的影响在EPElNi期间是绝对温标波浪的增强?os。LaNi的影响?一上绝对温标波浪紧张的减小相对更弱，反映热带深传送对流和联系凯尔文的非线性响应ENSO海表面温度(SST)飘动异例。CPElNi的影响?绝对温标波浪上的o由于相对更弱的SST异例和更小的空间范围是不太重要的。ENSO可以也改变绝对温标波浪的频率，波长，和阶段速度。这研究证明低频率的ENSOSST异例调制高周波的热带骚乱，天气气候连接的一个例子。

简介：在这研究，敏感实验与联合模型从大气的研究(NCEP/NCAR)分析数据的环境预言/公民中心的U.S.National中心由风压力异例强迫了在climatological平均数海表面温度的ENSOevents.The效果的形成和发展上学习东方和平的温暖的水池的影响的Zebiak藤条海洋空气被进行预报技巧上的温暖的水池中，在ENSO期间，1982-1999的事件是更多的conside

简介：利用Г分布函数对中国1951—2004年地面台站逐日降水观测资料进行雨日降水量概率分布拟合并定义极端降水事件，在此基础上对极端降水日数与ENSO的关系进行分析研究。结果表明，ENSO对同期的极端降水发生频率在不同地区和不同季节表现出不同的影响作用。总体而言，中国极端降水事件更易发生在厄尔尼诺年的冬春季和拉尼娜年的夏秋季。极端降水在对ENSO强信号的滞后响应上，其发生频率在时空上发生了变化，主要表现为，多数地方更易在ENSO暖位相出现后的半年左右发生极端降水事件。研究表明，ENSO冷暖信号对我国极端降水事件多寡的影响具有不对称性。

简介：

简介：使用太平洋海表温度资料、南方涛动指数和招远国家气象观测站气温常规观测资料，对1981—2010年ENSO事件与气温的影响及相关性进行分析。结果表明：ENSO事件强度呈现剧烈起伏波动的特点。年平均气温呈现在波动中明显上升的趋势，冬季最为显著。ENSO事件的强度与年平均气温的变化呈明显的正相关性。春季气温和ENSO强度两者间呈正相关特征，暖事件年的前一年，气温明显偏低，暖事件年气温升高明显：夏季气温和ENSO事件强度主要呈正相关特征，但90年代末期后，气温和事件强度呈负相关特性：在秋季暖事件年气温偏低，冷事件年气温偏高；冬季气温与ENSO事件强度呈明显正相关特性，中等强度的ENso事件对冬季气温的影响更大。

简介：Byprescribingseasurfacetemperatureanomalies(SSTAs)overeasternequatorialPacificinJanuary-March,thelaginfluenceofENSO(ElNinoandLaNina)onmonsoonoverEastAsiahasbeenstudied.Theresultssuggestthat,duetotheexcitationofatmosphericlow-frequencyoscillationbytheSSTA,ENSOhassignificantlaginfluenceonthemonsoonoverEastAsia.DuringthesummerafterElNino,thesubtropicalhighoverwesternPacificisintensifiedandshowsthenorthwardandwestwarddisplacement,meanwhile,therainfalloverEastChinaisbelownormal,especiallyinNorthChina;duringthewinterafterElNino,boththeAsiantroughandthewintermonsoonoverEastAsiaarestrengthened.DuringthesummerafterLaNina,theanomaloussubtropicalhighprevailsoverthelowerreachesofYangtze(Changjiang)River,therainfallbetweenYangtzeandHuaiheRiversisbelownormal;duringthewinterafterLaNina,boththeAsiantroughandthewintermonsoonoverEastAsiaareweaker.ComparedwithLaNina,theeffectofElNinoisstronger,butitisnotalwaysoppositetotheoneofLaNina.

简介：TheElNino-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)reflectsanomalousvariationsintheseasurfacetemperature(SST)andatmosphericcirculationoverthetropicalcentral-easternPacific.Itremarkablyimpactsonweatherandclimateworldwide,somonitoringandpredictionofENSOdrawintensiveresearch.However,thereisnotyetauniquestandardinternationallyforidentifyingthetiming,intensity,andtypeofENSOevents.TheNationalClimateCenterofChinaMeteorologicalAdministration(NCC/CMA)hasledtheefforttoestablishanationalidentificationstandardofENSOevents,whichwasofficiallyendorsedbytheNationalStandardizationAdministrationofChinaandimplementedoperationallyinNCC/CMAin2017.Inthispaper,twokeyaspectsofthisstandardareintroduced.First,theNino3.4SSTanomalyindex,whichiswell-recognizedintheinternationalENSOresearchcommunityandusedoperationallyintheUS,hasreplacedthepreviousNinoZindexandbeenusedtoidentifythestart,end,andpeaktimes,andintensityofENSOevents.Second,twonewindices-theeasternPacificENSO(EP)indexandthecentralPacificENSO(CP)index,basedontheSSTconditionsinNino3andNino4regionrespectively,arecalculatedtofirstdeterminetheENSOtypebeforemonitoringandassessingtheimpactsofENSOonChina’sclimate.Withthisstandard,allhistoricalENSOeventssince1950areconsistentlyre-identified;theirdistinctpropertiesarediagnosedandpresented;andtheimpactsofENSOeventsunderdifferenttypesonChina’sclimatearere-assessed.Thisstandardisalsoemployedtovalidatetheintensity,grade,andtypeoftheENSOeventspredictedbytheNCC/CMAoperationalENSOpredictionsystem.Thenewstandardandthethusderivedunifiedsetofre-analyzedhistoricalENSOeventsandassociatedinformationprovideagoodreferenceforbettermonitoringandpredictionoffutureENSOevents.

简介：TheNCEP/NCARreanalysisdatahavebeenemployedtodiagnosevariationsofthezonalmeanflowinborealsummer.TwoleadingEOFmodesarefoundtodominatethespatialandtemporalchangesofthesummertimezonalmeanwindsinthetroposphere.EOF1showsthedistributionofzonal-meanflowanomalieswithhighervarianceintheNorthPolarRegion,whereastheEOF2showsthedistributionofzonal-meanflowanomalieswithhighervarianceintropicalandextra-tropicalregions.TheEOF1andEOF2haverespectivelytheperiodicitiessimilartothoseofAOandENSO.SignificantlagcorrelationshavebeenfoundbetweenEOF1andENSO,andbetweenEOF2andAO,intheseasonsincludingspring,autumn,andwinter.However,nosignificantcorrelationshavebeenfoundbetweenEOF1insummerandENSOinanyotherseasons,andbetweenEOF2insummerandAOinotherseasons,nomatterhowbigthelagthatrepresentsnumberofseasonshasbeenset.Theseresultssuggestthattheprincipalmodesofsummertimezonalmeanflowcouldbestatisticallyseparatedfromeachother.Hence,EOF1andEOF2arephysicallyrelatedtotheAOandENSOrespectively.Atheorycalledquasi-geostrophicnon-accelerationtheoremhasbeenusedtopartlyexplainthepossiblemechanismsofthemaintenanceofthetwoprincipalmodes.ThecompositedifferencesofthedivergenceofEliassen-Palmflux(E-Pflux)betweenpositiveandnegativeyearsasobtainedfromthetimeseriesofEOF1andEOF2displaythedistributionsthatcontributetothezonalmeanwindanomaliesrepresentedbyEOF1andEOF2,respectively.TheplanetaryotherthanthesynopticwavesdominatethebehaviorsoftheE-Pfluxes,suggestingthecrucialroleoftheplanetarywavesinthemaintenanceofthezonalmeanflowanomalies.Theresidualcirculationaswellasthefriction,whichcancelthedivergenceoftheE-Pflux,alsoplayanimportantroleinsomeplaces.TheseresultsareveryhelpfulforourbetterunderstandinghowtheanomalouszonalmeanflowsmaintainandhowtheENSOandAOinfluencetheglo

简介：

简介：Thispaperanalyzesthecharacteristicsofsupertyphoons(STYs)overthewesternNorthPacific(WNP)from1965to2005anddescribestheseasonalvariabilityofSTYactivity.TherelationbetweenSTYactivityandtheElNio-SouthernOscillation(ENSO)aswellasthepossiblereasonfortheinfluenceoftheENSOonSTYactivityarealsoinvestigated.Theresultsshowedthataboutonefifthofthetropicalcyclones(TCs)overtheWNPcouldreachtherankofSTY.MostSTYsappearedfromJulytoNovem-berwhiletherewasahighestratiobetweennumberofSTYsandtotalnumberofTCsinNovember.MostSTYsappearedeastofthePhilippineSea.InElNioyears,affectedbyseasurfacetemperature(SST),monsoontroughandweakverticalwindshear,TCfor-mationlocationsshiftedeastwardandthereweremoreSTYsthaninLaNiayearswhentheaffectingfactorschanged.

简介：我们调查了内部冬季的年度变化在这篇论文的同温层的极的旋涡。文件结束分析证明可变性的二个模式统治同温层的极的旋涡在上内部年度时间规模。领先的模式(EOF1)反映极的旋涡的紧张变化并且被在极的区域之间的一块geopotential高度跷跷板描绘并且中间纬度。在极的旋涡的带的不对称的部分的第二个(EOF2)展览变化，它主要描述静止行星的波浪活动。作为最强壮内部在空气的年度变化信号，QBO被显示了主要影响极的旋涡的力量。在另一方面，ENSO周期最强壮内部在海洋的年度变化信号，被显示了主要在平流层与静止行星的波浪活动的变化被联系。球的循环也是的对流上的同温层的极的旋涡的可能的影响在这讨论了纸。

简介：现在的学习在冬季调查华南海(SCS)SST和ENSO的影响(1月鈥揊ebruary鈥揗arch；JFM)在由为时期使用车站观察的华南和它的动态过程上的降雨1951鈥?003，为时期的遇见的办公室哈德利中心SST数据1900鈥?008，并且为时期的ERA-40分析数据1958鈥?002。在华南上的JFM降雨与Ni有重要关联，这被发现?o-3和SCSSST。分析在ElNi显示出那?o或积极SCSSST异例年，在700hPa的西南的异例在华南海上统治，它接着搬运更多的潮湿进华南并且赞成增加的降雨。部分回归分析显示对冬季降雨的独立ENSO影响主要在华南上发生，而SCSSST在华南的北部分在冬季降雨上有更大的独立影响。在华南上的温度在表面附近在300hPa和增加显示出明显的减少，与Ni导致的前者?o-3和后者SCSSST异例。这提高对流不稳定性并且削弱潜在的涡度(PV)，它解释加强在华南上登上运动和JFM降雨的增加。关键词ENSO-华南海-SST-降雨-对流不稳定性-潜在的涡度

简介：Inthispaper,thewinteratmosphericcirculation,theconvectionalongtheequatorandtheirvariationsof1982and1983areinvestigated.Itissuggestedthattherewasawellorganizedthreedimensionalstructureofanomaliesoftheatmosphericcirculationsduring1982winterwhichmayberelatedtothevariationsoftheconvectionintheequatorialregion.

简介：

简介：Inthispaper,anerrorsourceintheatmosphericcomponentoftheCZ(Cane-Zebiak)modelisdiscussed,whichismissingafreemodein“theexactsolutions”.However,theimprovedschemeisproposed,whichisthecomputationalschemewithadjustedwindorobserveduandvaslateralboundaries.Thesimulationsshowthatthesimulatedsurfacewindbytheimprovedschemestrong-lybearsresemblancetotheobservationexceptfortheareanearthewestandtheeastboundariesoftheintegratedarea.Theseresultssupporttheconclusionthatthewindstresssimulatedbytheim-provedschemewithlateralboundariesismuchbetterthanthatsimulatedbytheCZmodel,andshowthatinteractionbetweenlowandmiddlelatitudeshasanimportantinfluenceontheENSOvariabilityintheCZmodel.Therefore,consideringitsimpactontheCZmodelcanimprovecapa-bilityoftheCZmodelforsimulatingENSOvariability.