简介：韦伯斯特和杨季风索引(WYI)—在第850a200hPa之间的带的风切变根据NCEP/NCAR分析数据计算、修改。在分析150-100和200hPa的发行量和分叉地以后，然而，我们发现200-hPalevel不能反映亚洲夏季风，特别特征和变化的upper-tropospheric发行量的真实变化热带在东方是upper-tropospheric发行量的最重要的特征的喷气。比U_(850)-U_(200),并且这样大的带的风切变U_(850)-U_((150+100))is大部分它能更适当地反映季风的力量。另外，分叉在150hPa而非200hPa是最大的，因此在上面对流层的罐头的150hPa反映联合季风系统。因此，WYI是重新定义的asDHI，即，I_(DH)=U_(850)~*-U_((150+100))~*，它能在亚洲描绘带的风切变的中心的紧张的可变性不仅，而且在上面、更低的对流层的季风系统。DHI比在展示它在那里显示的Asiansummer季风的长期的变化的WYI优异是明显的内部在亚洲夏季风和气候的十的变化突然的变化发生在1980。亚洲夏季风在第1980a前是更强壮的它由于变弱在然后以后变弱在150-100hPa的层在东方，当时在200hPa在东方没显著地变弱。在气候以后跳年一般来说，在在亚洲削弱的上面的对流层在东方，显示变弱夏季风；land-seapressure差别和热差别减少了，导致变弱季风；相应上面的分叉以及水汽运输在印度半岛，中央印度支那半岛，诺思中国，和东北中国减少了，显示也变弱夏季风。在学习茶碱紧张和亚洲夏季风的长期的变化的NCEP/NCAR和ERA-40分析数据之间的差别也为参考最后被比较。
简介：东方亚洲冬季季风(EAWM)的可变性能被划分成ENSO相关的部分(EAWMEN)和ENSO无关的部分(EAWMres)。在腐烂的关系ENSO上演的ENSO东方亚洲夏天季风(EASM)上的EAWMres的影响在现在的学习被调查。完成这，ENSO基于EAWMres被划分成四个组：(1)弱EAWMres-ElNi?o(WEAWMres在)；(2)强壮的EAWMres-ElNi?o(SEAWMres-在)；(3)弱EAWMres-LaNi?一(WEAWMres行)；(4)强壮的EAWMres-LaNi?一(SEAWMres行)。合成结果证明EAWMres可以为WEAWMres在和SEAWMres行在东亚上提高大气的回答到ENSO。相应低级逆旋风(气旋)在西方的诺思太平洋(WNP)上的异例把Ni与El联系了?o(LaNi?一)趋于强壮。重要地，这个特征可以坚持直到下列夏天，引起在为WEAWMres在案例的北中国并且在为SEAWMres行案例的西南的中国的丰富的降雨。为SEAWMres在和WEAWMres行组，相反，EAWMres趋于削弱与ElNi联系的大气的发行量异例?o或LaNi?一。在这些，情况，异常WNP反气旋或气旋趋于被减少并且限制了降低纬度，它为WEAWMres行为SEAWMres在并且在西南的中国在北中国导致缺乏的夏天降雨。进一步的学习建议异常EAWMres可以在热带以外的海表面温度异例上有效果，它坚持直到随后的夏天并且可以防碍ENSO的影响。
简介：GlobalgriddeddailymeandatafromtheNCEP/NCARReanalysis(1948-2012)areusedtoobtaintheonsetdate,retreatdateanddurationtimeseriesoftheSouthChinaSeasummermonsoon(SCSSM)forthepast65years.Thesummermonsoononset(retreat)dateisdefinedasthetimewhenthemeanzonalwindat850hPashiftssteadilyfromeasterly(westerly)towesterly(easterly)andthepseudo-equivalentpotentialtemperatureatthesamelevelremainssteadyatgreaterthan335K(lessthan335K)intheSouthChinaSeaarea[110-120°E(10-20°N)].TheclockwisevortexoftheequatorialIndianOceanregion,togetherwiththecross-equatorialflowandthesubtropicalhigh,playsadecisiveroleintheburstoftheSCSSM.TheonsetdateoftheSCSSMiscloselyrelatedtoitsintensity.Withlate(early)onsetofthesummermonsoon,itsintensityisrelativelystrong(weak),andthezonalwindundergoesanearly(late)abruptchangeintheuppertroposphere.ClimatewarmingsignificantlyaffectstheonsetandretreatdatesoftheSCSSManditsintensity.Withclimatewarming,thenumberofearly-onset(-retreat)yearsoftheSCSSMisclearlygreater(less),andtheSCSSMisclearlyweakened.
简介：Theanalysisof43yearsofNCEP-NCARreanalysisdataandstationobservationsrevealstheconnectionsbetweentropospherictemperaturevariationsandtheweakeningoftheIndiansummermonsooncirculation.TheIndiansummermonsoonvariationisstronglylinkedtotropospherictemperatureoverEastAsia,showingsignificantpositivecorrelationsofmeantropospherictemperaturewithall-Indiansummerrainfallandthemonsooncirculationintensity.TheresultshowsthatIndiansummermonsooncirculationunderwenttwoweakeningprocessesinrecentdecades.Thefirstoccurredincircathemid-1960s,andtheotheroccurredincircathelate1970s.ThefindingindicatesthatthemeantropospherictemperaturemayplayacrucialroleintheweakeningoftheIndiansummermonsoonintensityviachangingland-seathermalcontrast.TheroleofthetropospherictemperaturecontrastbetweenEastAsiaandthetropicalareafromtheeasternIndianOceantothetropicalwesternPacificistoweakentheIndiansummermonsooncirculation.
简介：在大陆中国的气候能在西北以及intercross地区在东南和西的区域被划分成季风区域，即，季风来自西南中国是面向的到上面的黄河，诺思中国，和东北中国的极北的边缘的活跃地区。在三个区域，干燥湿的气候变化直接在高原的北方方面上在西藏的高原和西的流动的东方方面上被连接到南方的季风流动的相互作用从对内部十的时间规模内部年度。在为最后一半的三个区域的气候可变性的一些基本特征世纪并且历史几百年在这篇论文被考察。在最后一半世纪，西的流动从Xinjiang在西的区域被发现到诺思中国和东北中国的北部分的与提高联系的夏天降水的一个增加的趋势。在另一方面，沿着长江的夏天降水的一个增加的趋势和沿着季风的夏天降水的一个减少的趋势极北的边缘的活跃地区在东亚与变弱的季风流动被联系。历史的文件在季风区域是广泛地分布式的因为几百年和自然气候代理在非季风区域被构造，当气候代理的二种类型能通常在季风上被发现极北的边缘的活跃地区时。在季风区域，干燥湿的变化中心从一个世纪在诺思中国，更低的长江，和华南之中被改变到另外一个。干燥或湿的异例是第一沿着季风观察了极北的边缘的活跃地区并且变对长江山谷和华南在向南方或向东南关于70年的时间规模。严重干旱事件沿着季风经验丰富极北的边缘的活跃地区在最后5个世纪期间。内部十的干燥湿的变化被自然代理在非季风区域上在几个区域为最后45个世纪描绘。一些问题例如在中国的在干燥湿的政体变化上的全球温暖的影响，在在东北中国的季风和西的流动之间的复杂相互作用，和中国的在整个所有的综合多代理分析，被建议。
简介：Temporalandspatialevolutioncharacteristicsofthe30-60dayoscillation(intraseasonaloscillation,ISO)ofsummerrainfallinChinaandtheeffectsofEastAsianmonsoonontherainfallISOareanalyzedinthispaper.Resultsshowthattheannualanddecadalvariationsoftheoscillationexistbetween1960and2008,andtheintensityisweakestinthelate1970sandearly1980s.InthetypicalstrongyearsoftherainfallISOobtainedfromempiricalorthogonalfunctions(EOFmode1),ananticycloneisinnorthwesternPacificandacycloneisintheeastofChina.Inthetypicalweakyears,thewindISOismuchweaker.Thelow-frequencyzonalwindandwatervaportransportfromthelowlatitudestomid-latitudesinthetypicalstrongyears,andtheoscillationstrengthofdiabaticheatingismuchstrongerthanthatintheweakyearsoftherainfallISO.TheanomalycharacteristicsoftherainfallISOshowanti-phasesbetweentheYangtzeRiverbasinandsouthofChina.AsforthetypicalstrongyearsoftherainfallISOintheYangtzeRiverbasin(EOFmode2),themainoscillationcenterofwatervaporisintheeastofChina(20-30°N,110-130°E).Inthepeak(break)phaseoftherainfalloscillation,alow-frequencycyclone(anticyclone)isintheYangtzeRiverbasinandananticyclone(cyclone)isnearTaiwanIsland.Inaddition,thepeakrainfallcorrespondstotheheatsourceintheYangtzeRiverbasinandtheheatsinkintheQinghai-TibetPlateau.AsforthetypicalstrongyearsoftherainfallISOinthesouthofChina,themainoscillationcenterofwatervaporissouthof20°N.Inthepeak(break)phaseoftherainfallISO,alow-frequencycyclone(anticyclone)isinthesouthofChinaandananticyclone(cyclone)isinthePhilippines.ThepeakrainfallcorrespondstotheheatsourceinthesouthofChinaandtheSouthChinaSea,andtheheatsinkinthewestofIndochina.
简介：Theradiativeforcing(RF)ofAsiandesertdustanditsregionalfeedbackstotheEastAsiansummermonsoon(EASM)systemareinvestigatedwithacoupledregionalclimate-desertdustmodel.Thestatisticalsignificanceofdesertdusteffectsareanalyzedthrough20summerseasons(1990-2009).Inordertoestimatethedusteffectsreasonably,someimprovementhasbeenachievedforthecoupledmodel,includingtheupdatesofopticalpropertiesanddesertsourceareadistribution.WefindthatthedesertdustcanresultinaroughlyweakenedmonsoonineasternChina,KoreanPeninsula,JapanandIndianPeninsulaandastrengthenedmonsooninIndochinaPeninsulainthelowertroposphere.Moreover,theprecipitationcomparisonsbetweenobservationaldataandsimulatedpatternsarealsosuggestiveofthedesertdusteffectontheEASM.Intheuppertroposphere,thesouthwardshiftofthewesterlyjet(WJ)bythedusteffectcanbeseenasanindicatoroftheweakenedmonsooningreatpartofthemonsoonareas.Thechangeofthemoiststaticenergy(MSE)contrastbetweenlandandoceanisthemainreasonfortheEASMvariations.
简介：ThispaperexplorestheapplicationofArtificialIntelligent(AI)techniquesforclimateforecast.ItpresentsastudyonmodellingthemonsoonprecipitationforecastbymeansofArtificialNeuralNetworks(ANNs).UsingthehistoricaldataofthetotalamountofsummerrainfallovertheDeltaAreaofYangtzeRiverinChina,threeANNsmodelshavebeendevelopedtoforecastthemonsoonprecipitationinthecorrespondingareaoneyear,five-year,andten-yearforwardrespectively.Performancesofthemodelshavebeenvalidatedusinga＇new＇datasetthathasnotbeenexposedtothemodelsduringtheprocessesofmodeldevelopmentandtest.Theexperimentresultsarepromising,indicatingthattheproposedANNsmodelshavegoodqualityintermsoftheaccuracy,stabilityandgeneralisationability.
简介：Inthispaper,weuseatwo-dimensionalprimaryequationmodelwhichcontains(1)heatingofradiation,(2)heatingofcondensation,and(3)transfersofsensibleandlatentheatbetweenairandtheunderlyingsurface.ToinvestigatethecausesfortheformationoftheeasternNorthPacificsum-mermonsoon,thedataat110°Wareobtainedandwindsatunderlyingsurfaceandat200hPaaremodifiedundertheconditions(1)removingtopographyand(2)changingmeridionalseasurfacetem-perature(SST)gradient.Inthenumericalmodification,wefindthatbyremovingthetopography,thecenter’slocationoftheeasternNorthPacificsummermonsoondoesnotchange,buttheintensityofthesummermonsoonisweakened.AlsotheonsetofthesummermonsoonisdelayedtotheendofMay.Thetropicaleast-erlyjetisweakenedobviously,evenchangestowesterlywind.Ontheotherhand,wefindthattheSSTgradientalong110°WinfluencestheeasternNorthPacificsummermonsoondistinctly.IftheSSTgradientisdecreased,thecenterofthesouthwestwindnear12°Ndoesnotexistanymore.theintensityofthewholesummermonsoonbecomesveryweakandthecirculationpatternofthesummermonsoonalsochangesalot.Finally,weindicatethatbothtopographyandmeridionalSSTgradientplayimportantrolesintheoccurrenceoftheeasternNorthPacificsummermonsoon.ThemeridionalSSTgradientisthemostimportantfactorthattriggersthesummermonsoonandthetopographyalong110°Winfluencestheintensityandtheonsettimeofthesummermonsoontheremostly.
简介：在这篇论文，关于亚洲热带夏天季风(ATSM)的发作的相对系统的climatological研究被执行。基于ATSM发作，ATSM最新被献殷勤的全部的然后ATSM第一爆发在热带东方印度洋和中间、南部的印度支那半岛上的看法的一个统一索引进一步被记录，它在第26五(关于5月10日)，然后在在第28五的华南海(SCS)上。看起来，在二个区域上的ATSM发作属于一样的季风系统的不同阶段。然后，ATSM的发作机制被全面分析进一步在陆地海上调查热力学的对比，intraseasonal摆动，等等并且影响ATSM发作的几个关键因素被提出。把结果基于这些，大气的发行量的ATSM第一爆发在热带东方印度洋，印度支那半岛，和SCS上的图解的地图也是的可能的climatological介绍的、也就是季节的进化是季风发作的背景；改进并且向北方在印度支那半岛和它的附近的区域上的传送对流，理智的加热并且潜伏的加热进展，在东方西藏的高原上的印度缅甸马槽，和西的温暖的移流的戏剧的加深是夏天季风发作的主要驱动力，它做了区域和上升运动开发的在这上第一反向的温度的南方的坡度。然后，热带季风和降水很快发展了并且提高。30-60-day和10-20-day的阶段锁低频率摆动从不同来源发源是为夏天季风发作的另一个被触发的因素。它只是最早导致了ATSM的这些因素的普通效果在这个区域上的发作。
简介：在季风发行量上与亚洲夏天季风和他们的影响的预言联系的风地的系统的错误在这份报纸被学习了。每天运作的分析和预报(直到day-5)预报的中等范围天气(NCMRWF)的国家中心，印度在为时期6月的亚洲夏天季风领域上，1995的7月和8月为目的被成为使用。与低级流动联系的系统的错误描出，在贸易的力量的减小弯屈导致在印度洋上生气赤道的流动以及西的流动变弱。上面的水平误差意味着在回来流动的强度西藏的反气旋和减小变弱进南部的半球。进一步，这些错误随预报时期的增加表示成长趋势。除了动能预算学期的一般低估，模型预报没能代表短暂旋涡。预报显示在旋涡的变换的增加的趋势意味着动能。这些错误使衰弱有预报时期的增加的亚洲夏天季风循环。关键词季风-系统的错误-动能预算作者对为提供数据和计算设备执行现在的学习的NCMRWF感激。
简介：Therelationshipbetweentheall-IndiasummermonsoonrainfallandsurfacepressureovertheIndianregionhasbeenexaminedtoobtainausefulpredictorforthemonsoonrainfall.Thedataseriesofall-Indiamonsoonrainfallandthemeanpressuresofthreeseasonsbeforeandafterthemonsoonseasonaswellasthewinter-to-springpressuretendency(MAM-DJF)at100stationsfortheperiod1951-1980havebeenusedintheanalysis.Theall-Indiamonsoonrainfallisnegativelycorrelatedwiththepressureofthespring(MAM)seasonprecedingthemonsoonandwinter-to-springseasonaldifferenceaspressuretendency(MAM-DJF),atalmostallthestationsinIndia,andsignificantlywiththepressuresovercentralandnorthwesternregions.Theaveragemeansealevelpressureofsixstations(Jodhpur,Ahmedabed,Bombay,Indore,SagarandAkola)intheWesternCentralIndian(WCI)regionshowedhighlysignificant(at1%level)andconsistentCCsof-0.63forMAMand-0.56forMAM-DJFfortheperiod1951-1980.T
简介：Thetemporalandspatialvariationsoftheten-daymeansurfacelatentheatflux(TMLH)havebeenanalyzedinthispaperbasedonthedataofNCEPfromJanuaryof1979toDecemberof1995intheSouthChinaSea(SCS)monsoonregion.ItisfoundthatthereexistmaximumcentersofTMLHstandarddeviationinthenorthwestIndochinaandtheIndianPeninsulaaswellasthewesternPacific,SCS,theIndianOceanandtheBayofBengal,andtheirlocationsandstrengthschangesignificantlyduringtheperiodofSCSmonsoononset.ApositivezonaldeviationofTMLHoccursfirstintheIndochinaPeninsula,apparentlyearlierthanthatintheIndianPeninsula.TheappearanceofmaximumpositivezonaldeviationsofTMLHapproximatelycoincideswiththesummermonsoononset.OvertheIndochinaandIndianPeninsulas,theTMLHincreasesgraduallywithasmallamplitudeofvariationbeforetheonsetofsummermonsoon,andtherateofincreaseissignificantlyenhancedaftertheonsetofthemonsoon;whereasovertheocean,TMLHdecreasesbeforethemonsoononset,varieslittleduringtheperiodofmonsoonandincreasesgraduallyaftertheendingofmonsoon.Therefore,itseemsthatthesurfacelatentheatfluxplaysanimportantroleinthemaintenanceofthesummermonsoon,anditsvariationisanphenomenonaccompanyingtheonsetofsummermonsoon.
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