简介:厄尔尼诺是一种发生在秘鲁海岸以外太平洋中部和东部海域表层海水的大规模异常变暖现象,同时伴随着影响环太平洋地区很大范围内天气类型的大气变化。这包括南方涛动指数出现负值(该指数的作用是衡量东太平洋和西太平洋之间的大气压差),以及在太平洋热带海域信风的不断弱化和云量的增加。厄尔尼诺是海洋方面的组成部分,而南方涛动是大气方面的组成部分。
简介:利用中国科学院大气物理研究所设计发展的具有较高分辨率的热带太平洋和全球大气耦合环流模式,设计了一个初始化方案,建立了ENSO预测系统,进行了系统性的预测试验。预测结果检验评估表明,该预测系统表现出较强的预报能力,赤道中东太平洋地区(Nino3和Nino34)海表温度距平预报相关技巧高于052的预报可持续18个月,该预测系统可应用到试验性的海温预测实践中。利用该系统对1997/1998年ENSO进行了实际预测,表明预测是成功的,预测的海温距平已提供给今年我国夏季降水预测使用,取得了良好的预测效果。
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简介:Byprescribingseasurfacetemperatureanomalies(SSTAs)overeasternequatorialPacificinJanuary-March,thelaginfluenceofENSO(ElNinoandLaNina)onmonsoonoverEastAsiahasbeenstudied.Theresultssuggestthat,duetotheexcitationofatmosphericlow-frequencyoscillationbytheSSTA,ENSOhassignificantlaginfluenceonthemonsoonoverEastAsia.DuringthesummerafterElNino,thesubtropicalhighoverwesternPacificisintensifiedandshowsthenorthwardandwestwarddisplacement,meanwhile,therainfalloverEastChinaisbelownormal,especiallyinNorthChina;duringthewinterafterElNino,boththeAsiantroughandthewintermonsoonoverEastAsiaarestrengthened.DuringthesummerafterLaNina,theanomaloussubtropicalhighprevailsoverthelowerreachesofYangtze(Changjiang)River,therainfallbetweenYangtzeandHuaiheRiversisbelownormal;duringthewinterafterLaNina,boththeAsiantroughandthewintermonsoonoverEastAsiaareweaker.ComparedwithLaNina,theeffectofElNinoisstronger,butitisnotalwaysoppositetotheoneofLaNina.
简介:Inthispaper,thewinteratmosphericcirculation,theconvectionalongtheequatorandtheirvariationsof1982and1983areinvestigated.Itissuggestedthattherewasawellorganizedthreedimensionalstructureofanomaliesoftheatmosphericcirculationsduring1982winterwhichmayberelatedtothevariationsoftheconvectionintheequatorialregion.
简介:Inthispaper,anerrorsourceintheatmosphericcomponentoftheCZ(Cane-Zebiak)modelisdiscussed,whichismissingafreemodein“theexactsolutions”.However,theimprovedschemeisproposed,whichisthecomputationalschemewithadjustedwindorobserveduandvaslateralboundaries.Thesimulationsshowthatthesimulatedsurfacewindbytheimprovedschemestrong-lybearsresemblancetotheobservationexceptfortheareanearthewestandtheeastboundariesoftheintegratedarea.Theseresultssupporttheconclusionthatthewindstresssimulatedbytheim-provedschemewithlateralboundariesismuchbetterthanthatsimulatedbytheCZmodel,andshowthatinteractionbetweenlowandmiddlelatitudeshasanimportantinfluenceontheENSOvariabilityintheCZmodel.Therefore,consideringitsimpactontheCZmodelcanimprovecapa-bilityoftheCZmodelforsimulatingENSOvariability.
简介:Thispaperanalyzedthevariationsoflatentheatflux(LHF)overthetropicalPacificintheperiod1978-1988byusingCOADS(ComprehensiveOceanandAtmosphericDataSet).IthasbeenfoundedthattheinterannualvariabilityofLHFexhibitsstrongENSOsignal,withthesignificantincreasingLHFduringtherecenttwowarmevents,i.e.,1982/83and1986/87anddecreasingLHFinthecoldepisodes.HoweverthelongitudinaldistributionoftheLHFdeparturesvariesfromeventtoevent.IntheeasternPacific,thespecifichumiditydifferenceatair-seainterface(qs-qa)makesadominantcontributiontotheinterannualvariabilityofLHF(r=0.73),whileinthewesternPacificthesurfacewindspeed,Wandtheqs-qamakenearlyequalcontributiontothatofLHF.
简介:根据强壮的ENSO处理的1982/1983的比较,象快速的开发,巨大的紧张和突然的撤退那样的关键特征在1997/1998关于温暖的事件被揭示,为这个过程在它海洋和空气的发作和进化期间为热带印度洋和西方的太平洋管理intraseasonal摆动的特征特征地详细被学习。