Stochastic Model for Estimating Extreme Water Level in Port and Coastal Engineering Design

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2018-04-14
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Extremewaterlevelisanimportantconsiderationwhendesigningcoastalprotectionstructures.However,frequencyanalysisrecommendedbystandardcodesonlyconsiderstheannualmaximumwaterlevel,whereaswaterlevelsshouldactuallyberegardedasacombinationofastronomicaltideandstormsurge.Thetwoimpactingfactorsarebothrandomvariables,andthispaperdiscussestheirdependencystructuresandproposesanewjointprobabilitymethodtodetermineextremedesignwaterlevels.Thelognormal,Gumbel,Weibull,Pearsontype3,traditionalmaximumentropy,andmodifiedmaximumentropydistributionsareappliedtofitunivariatedataofastronomicaltidesandstormsurgesseparately,andthebivariatenormal,Gumbel-Hougaard,FrankandClaytoncopulasarethenutilizedtoconstructtheirjointprobabilitydistributions.Toensurethatthenewdesignmethodissuitableforusewithtyphoondata,theannualoccurrencefrequencyoftyphoonprocessesisconsideredandcorrespondingbivariatecompoundprobabilitydistributionsareproposed.BasedonmaximumwaterleveldataobtainedfromHengmenhydrologicalstationinthePearlRiverBasin,China,theseprobabilitymodelsareappliedtoobtaindesignsforextremewaterlevelsusingthelargestsumoftheastronomicaltideandstormsurgeobtainedunderfixedjointreturnperiods.Thesedesignvaluesprovideanimprovedapproachfordeterminingthenecessaryheightofcoastalandoffshorestructures.