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简介:Whilegametheoretictoolshavebeenwidelyappliedtonuclearproliferationanddisarmamentissues,traditionaldecisionanalysisassumesthatdecisionmakers,options,andpreferencesarefixed.Adramatheoreticapproachisusedtoovercometheselimitingassumptions:DramaTheory(DT)Ⅱallowsgloballeadersandnationalsecuritypolicymakerstoengageinarational-emotionalprocessofre-defininginternationalsecuritynegotiations(andtheir'positions'inthem)untilagreementonasatisfactorynuclearnon-proliferationresolutionisreached.The2009nuclearenergynegotiationsbetweenIranandworldpowersaremodeledwithDTⅡandtheConfrontationManagerTMDecisionSupportSystem.Byadjustingstrategyandderivingtransformativesecuritypolicy,itisshownhowinternationalsecuritycanbeachievedbypromotingnuclearnon-proliferationandresolvingstrategicconflict.
简介:Thispaperinvestigatesthepricingofoptionswrittenonnon-tradedassetsandtradingstrategiesforthestockandoptioninanexponentialutilitymaximizationframework.Undertheassumptionthattheoptioncanbecontinuouslytradedwithoutfrictionjustasthestock,adynamicrelationshipbetweentheiroptimalpositionsisderivedbyusingthestochasticdynamicprogrammingtechniques.Thedynamicoptionpricingequationsarealsoestablished.Inparticular,thepropertiesoftheassociatedsolutionsarediscussedandtheirexplicitrepresentationsaredemonstratedviatheFeynman-Kacformula.Thispaperfurthercomparesthedynamicoptionpricetotheexistingpricenotions,suchasthemarginalpriceandindifferenceprice.
简介:Thispaperexploresthemacroeconomicdeterminantsofnon-performingloans(NPL)in19Asiancountries(lowtohighincomeeconomies)usingtheGeneralizedMethodofMomentsestimationapproachbasedontheeconomicdatafortheperiodbetween1998and2015.ThecategorizationoftheeconomiesisbasedontheaveragegrossnationalincomepercapitaassetbytheWorldBank.Specifically,thepaperaimstoevaluateifthedeterminantsofNPLvarywiththeincomelevelsofthecountries.TheresultsindicatethattheNPLisstronglyinfluencedbytheinflationrate.Theeffectis,however,negativeinthehigh-incomeandthemiddle-incomecountriesandpositiveinthelow-incomecountries.TheGDPpercapitahasadynamicnegativerelationshipwiththeNPLinthehigh-incomeandthelow-incomecountries.Theremittancehasasignificantpositiveassociationinthehigh-incomeandasignificantnegativeassociationinthelow-incomecountries.Similarly,theunemploymentratehasapositiveeffectonNPLinthemiddle-incomeandthelow-incomecountries.Withtheriseintheofficialexchangerate,theNPLlevelincreasesinthelow-incomecountries.TheoverallestimationresultssuggestthattheNPLinAsianbankingsystemdependonsomekeymacroeconomicvariables,suchasunemploymentrate,inflationrate,officialexchangerate,remittancereceivedandgrossdomesticproductpercapita,andtheseassociationsvarywiththeincomelevelofthecountries.Therefore,economiclevelofacountryshouldbecarefullyconsideredwhileformulatingcreditpolicytominimizecreditrisksinthebankingsystem.
简介:与non-holonomic限制为联网的平面多代理人系统追踪控制问题的时间变体一致在这份报纸被调查。在追踪问题的时间变体一致,一个领导人代理人被期望同时,追踪需要的引用输入追随者代理人被期望维持时间变体形成。解决与non-holonomic限制追踪平面多代理人系统的问题的时间变体一致,追踪控制策略的时间变体一致根据单向性的拓扑学结构被设计。这份报纸的主要贡献之一是与non-holonomic限制为平面多代理人系统的一般时间变体形成追踪协议的时间变体一致,这份报纸的另外的主要贡献是活跃预兆的控制策略,在代理人的预言活跃地被产生的地方,以便计算效率比被动途径被改进。建议控制策略被wheeled的变化时间的形成的二种类型验证活动机器人,和试验性的结果证明建议控制策略为在本地、世界范围的联网的环境与non-holonomic限制追踪平面多代理人系统的问题的一般时间变体一致是有效的。
简介:与谈论气候的世界,变化,美国(美国),中国和印度宣布了他们的碳排放减小目标。这三个国家完成他们的目标,重要问题产生例如将是完成那些目标的年度排放减小努力的,它将花费多少并且什么将是经济效果。这份报纸把中国和印度的碳紧张减小目标放进和美国的绝对排放减小目标一样的非线性的模型到最佳的排放控制策略和联系总数为在一年2020完成那些目标花费了的份量上学习,并且估计并且比较三个国家的最小化的全部的费用到达他们的目标。我们总数花费了让美国完成它的排放减小目标的结果表演以绝对数量比中国和印度的那些大。以到GDP的全部的费用的比例,然而,中国和印度比率比美国的显著地大,显示为象中国和印度那样的发展中的国家,排放减小目标的成就需要相对更大的努力。
简介:Althoughthegreyforecastingmodelhasbeensuccessfullyadoptedinvariousfieldsanddemonstratedpromisingresults,theliteraturesshowitsperformancecouldbefurtherimproved,suchasfortheDGM(1,1)model,basedonaconcavesequence,themodelingerrorwillbelarger.Inthispaper,firstlythedefinitionofsequenceconvexityisgivenout,anditisprovedthattheoutputsequenceofDGM(1,1)modelisaconvexsequence.Next,theresidualchangelawofDGM(1,1)modelbasedontheconcavesequenceisdiscussed,andthenon-equidistanceDGM(1,1)modelisproposed.Finally,byintroducingthesymmetrytransformation,aconcavesequenceistransformedintoaconvexsequence,calledthesymmetricsequenceoftheconcavesequence,andthenconstructthenon-equidistanceDGM(1,1)modelbasedontheconvexsequence.Theexampleresultsshowthatthenovelmethodismoreaccuratethanthedirectmodelingforaconcavesequence.