简介:AgeStructureandDependencyRatioChina’spopulationhasexperiencedaprocesfromahighbirthrateandhighmortalityratetoalowbirthrateandl...
简介:ProjectionofChangeintheAgeStructureoftheWorldPopulationBythemid-21stcentury,theworldpopulationisprojectedtotoptenbillion,ofwh...
简介:WithcomparisonofdemographicchangesbetweenthedevelopedEuropeancountriesandChina,thispaperhasdiscussedtheshortcomingsoftheWesterndemographictransitiontheories.Furthermore,thepaperhasproposedthedirectionofdemographictransitionandthecriteriaofsuchtransition'scompletion.Withtheestablishmentofage-structuretransitiontheory,andhelpedwithstrictdefinitionsofbothsurpluspopulationandappropriatepopulation,thepaperpointsoutthedistinctionofdemographicage-structurebetweenthosedevelopingcountriesthatareundergoingdemographictransitionandthosedevelopedcountrieswithanearcompletionofsuchdemographictransition.FinallyitconcludesthatChina'stransitionofagestructureismovingtowardsafeasibledirection.
简介:TakingBeijingasanexampleandbasedonthecensusdata,macro-levelpopulationstatisticaldataand2004~2013marriageregistrationdata,thispapermakesacontrastiveanalysisonthecharacteristicsandchangingtrendsoflocalresidents,migrantsandtemporarymigrants.Relativetothelocalresidents,themigrantsgenerallyhavehouseholdregistryofcentraldistrictsandhighereducationallevelandoccupationallayer.Temporarymigrantshaverelativelycomplicatedpopulationstructurebutdifferentiateduringtheprocessofmarriagematching.'Two-placemarriages'formastablegroupofnewpermanentmigrantsandmeanwhileimplyasizablegroupoflatentdependentmigrants.Thiswillproducegreatinfluencesonthegeneralpopulationstructureandtheagingprocess,whichmayalsoleadtosomeconflictsandproblems.Thegovernmentshouldbepreparedwithpolicyresponsessoastopromotethebenigndevelopmentofpopulationdiversificationinmegalopolis.
简介:Thechangesinlaborsupplyanddemandareimportantfactorsaffectingeconomicgrowth.ThepurposeofthispaperistopredictandanalyzethetrendsinChina'slaborsupplyanddemandduringthe13thFive-YearPlanperiodandthelongerperiodinthefuture.Thescaleandstructureoftheannualnewentrantsoflaborforcearepredictedbyaccountingthenumberswhoareleavingfromvariousstagesofeducation.whiletrendsoflabordemandarepredictedaccordingtoemploymentelasticityfromtheexperienceofindustrializationofdevelopedcountries.Theresultsshowthat,duringthe13thFiveYearPlanperiod.thescaleofthenewaddedlaborwoulddecreaseslightly,withanaverageannualincrementofaround15.68million.Atthesametime.labordemandwouldincreasesteadily,withannually15.42millionemploymentopportunities.Laborsupplyanddemandwouldberoughlybalanced;however,therewouldbeincreasingstructuralcontradictionsofthelabormarket.Basedontheanalysisoflaborsupplyanddemand,weprovideanestimationoftheunemploymentscaleofthe40'sand50'sgenerations,migrantworkersandcollegegraduates,anddiscusspolicysuggestionsonpromotingemploymentofcollegegraduates.