Modelling fertility:an application of count regression models

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摘要 Oftenthelifecycledataoccurascountofthevitaleventsandarerecordedasintegers.Thepurposeofthisarticleistomodelthefertilitybehaviorbasedonreligious,educational,economic,andoccupationalcharacteristics.TheresponsesofclassifiedgroupsaccordingtothesedeterminantsareexaminedforsignificantinfluenceonfertilityusingPoissonregressionmodel(PRM)basedontheNationalFamilyHealthSurvey-3dataset.TheobservedandpredictedprobabilitiesunderPRMindicatemodalvalueoftwochildrenforthePoissondistributionmodeleddata.Presenceofdominanceoftwochildinthedatamotivatestheauthorstoadoptmultinomialregressionmodel(MRM)inordertolinkfertilitywithvarioussocioeconomicindicatorsresponsibleforfertilityvariation.Choiceoftheexplanatoryfactorsislimitedtotheavailabilityofdata.Trendsandpatternsofpreferenceforbirthcountssuggestthatreligion,caste,wealth,femaleeducation,andoccupationarethedominantfactorsshapingtheobservedbirthprocess.Empiricalanalysissuggeststhatboththemodelsusedinthestudyperformsimilarlyonthesampledata.However,fittingofMRMbytakingbirthcountoftwoascomparisoncategoryshowsimprovedAkaikeinformationcriterionandconsistentAkaikeinformationcriterionvalues.CurrentworkcontributestotheexistingliteratureasitattemptstoprovidemoreinsightintothedeterminantsofIndianfertilityusingPoissonandMRM.
机构地区 不详
出版日期 2015年04月14日(中国期刊网平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)
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