简介：这份报纸证明一个环形的模式能从北方大西洋摆动(NAO)和Pacific/North美国人(PNA)的联合被构造模式。伪环状，南方的偶极子和构造环形的模式的垂直barotropy大西洋摆动(AO)模式类似于那些。它也以变化贡献是一个主导的模式。而且，它与AO的时间的关联是相当强壮的。这个新环形的模式优于AO因为它合并PNA的大部分并且做行动的中心在和平更强壮、比AO的更身体上相关。或，更通常，它可以被认为是不同于AO的一个物理模式。这研究的结果也显示NAO-PNA观点包含大多数AO的信息，而AO观点仅仅关于NAO-PNA的信息的一半包含。因而，NAO-PNA观点被作者考虑比AO的更全面。

简介：在北方亚洲气旋(NAC)之间的关系活动和南部的环形的模式(SAM)在这研究被记录。NAC索引(NACI)的定义在诺思亚洲基于大气的相对涡度。分析产出在以前的冬季之间的重要积极关联南部的环形的模式索引(SAMI)和春天NACI在内部年度可变性，与0.51的一个关联系数在期间19482000。NAC相关、SAM相关的大气的一般发行量可变性的分析表明如此的一种关系。学习进一步表明当冬季SAM变得强壮时，在热带西方的太平洋的大气的传送对流将加强的春季和本地哈德利发行量将被加强。作为结果，在华南上的反常减退运动使温度坡度在底层加强了并且在高水平加强喷气，哪个对NAC的发展有益活动。

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简介：Oceanicgeneralcirculationmodelshavebecomeanimportanttoolforthestudyofmarinestatusandchange.ThispaperreportsanumericalsimulationcarriedoutusingLICOM2.0andtheforcingfieldfromCORE.WhencomparedwithSODAreanalysisdataandERSST.v3bdata,thepatternsandvariabilityofthetropicalPacific–IndianOceanassociatedmode(PIOAM)arereproducedverywellinthisexperiment.Thisindicatesthat,whenthetropicalcentral–westernIndianOceanandcentral–easternPacificareabnormallywarmer/colder,thetropicaleasternIndianOceanandwesternPacificarecorrespondinglycolder/warmer.ThisfurtherconfirmsthatthetropicalPIOAMisanimportantmodethatisnotonlysignificantintheSSTanomalyfield,butalsomoreobviouslyinthesubsurfaceoceantemperatureanomalyfield.Thesurfaceassociatedmodeindex(SAMI)andthethermocline(i.e.,subsurface)associatedmodeindex(TAMI)calculatedusingthemodeloutputdataarebothconsistentwiththevaluesoftheseindicesderivedfromobservationandreanalysisdata.However,themodelSAMIandTAMIaremorecloselyandsynchronouslyrelatedtoeachother.

简介：这份报纸建议我们叫作鈥渟egregated预言鈥?预言是nonstationary的气候时间系列的一条新途径。这条途径基于实验模式分解方法(EMD)，它能分解一时间信号进基本摆动的部件的一个有限、通常小的数字。到这的能力接近的测试，一些预言实验为几个气候时间系列被执行。试验性的结果证明这条途径能分解气候时间系列的nonstationarity并且分离在不同模式部件之间的非线性的相互作用，它从而能改进这些原来的气候时间系列的预言精确性。关键词EMD-nonstationarity-非线性的系统-气候预言-时间系列预言

简介：TheIndianOcean(IO)seasurfacetemperature(SST)wasanalyzedbyusingempiricalorthogonalfunction(EOF),andtheleadingmodeofIndianOcean(LMIO)SSTwasextracted.ThemajorspatialandtemporalcharactersofLMIOwerediscussed,andtherelationshipsbetweenLMIOwithIndiansummermonsoon(ISM)andwithChinasummerrainfalls(CSR)wereinvestigated,thentheimpactsofLMIOonAsiansummermonsoon(ASM)circulationwereexplored.Somenotableresultsareobtained:ThesignificantevolutionalcharactersofLMIOaretheconsistentwarmingtrendofalmostthewholeIObasin,thedistinctivequasi-3-andquasi-11-yroscillationsandremarkablyinterdecadalwarmingin1976/1977and1997/1998,respectively.TheLMIOimpairedthelowerlevelcirculationofISMandwascloselyrelatedwiththeclimatetrendofCSR.ItwasassociatedwiththeweakeningofSouthAsianhigh,theeasterlywindssouthoftheTibetanPlateau,andthecross-equatorialflowsover10°-20°N,40°-110°Eattheupperlevel;withthestrengtheningofSomalicross-equatorialjetbuttheweakeningofthecirculationofISMinthesectorofIndia,thestrengtheningofsouthwindoverthemiddleandlowerreachesofYangtzeRiverandSouthChinabuttheweakeningofsouthwesterlywindsoverNorthChinaatlowerlevelandwiththeincreasingofsurfacepressureovertheAsianContinent.ChangesinthemoisturefluxtransportsintegratedverticallyoverthewholetroposphereassociatedwithLMIOaresimilartothoseinthelowerlevelcirculation.Tosumup,thesignificantSSTincreasingtrendofIObasinwasoneoftheimportantcausesforweakeningoftheASMcirculationandthesouthwardsshiftingofChinasummerrainband.

简介：Applyingtheempiricalorthogonalfunction(EOF)analysistotheseasurfacetemperature(SST)fieldofthetropicalPacificandIndianOceansfordeterminationofthefirsteigenvectorfield,thecurrentworkrevealsthattherearesignificantzonalgradientsofSSTinallseasonsoftheyearinthenorthwesternandeasternIndianOceanandequatorialcentralandeasternPacificandwesternPacific.ItisalsofoundthatthevariancecontributionratesofthefirstEOFmodeofeveryseasonismorethan33%.ThisshowsthatthiskindofspatialdistributionoftheSSTisstable.ThispatternisnamedPacific-IndianOceansSSTAmode.Throughcarefulanalysisandcomparison,anindexofthemodewasdefined.

简介：Weanalyzethedecadalvariationofthestratospheretropospherecoupledsystemaroundtheyear2000byusingtheNCEPreanalysis-2data.Specifically,therelationshipbetweentheNorthernHemisphereAnnularMode(NAM)andthetroposphericEastAsiantroughisinvestigatedinordertofindtheeffectivestratosphericsignalsduringcoldairoutbreaksinChina.Statisticalanalysesanddynamicdiagnosesbothindicatethatafter2000,increasedstratosphericpolarvortexdisturbancesoccurandtheNAMismainlyinnegativephase.Thetroposphericpolarareasaredirectlyaffectedbythepolarvortex,andinthemidlatitudes,theUralblockinghighandEastAsiantrougharemoreactive,whichleadtoenhancedcoldairactivitiesineasternandnorthernChina.Furtherinvestigationrevealsthatunderthiscirculationpattern,downwardpropagationsofnegativeNAMindexarecloselyrelatedtotheintensityvariationoftheEastAsiantrough.WhennegativeNAManomaliespropagatedowntotheuppertroposphereandreachacertainintensity(standardizedNAMindexlessthan1),theyresultinapparentreinforcementoftheEastAsiantrough,whichreachesitsmaximumintensityaboutoneweeklater.Thenortherlywindbehindthetroughtransportscoldairsouthwardandeastward,andtherangeofinfluenceandtheintensityarecloselyassociatedwiththetroughlocation.Therefore,theNAMindexcanbeusedasameasureofthesignalsfromthedisturbedstratospheretogivesomeindicationofcoldairactivitiesinChina.

简介：Basedonnormalizedsix-hourlyblackbodytemperature(TBB)dataofthreegeostationarymeteorologicalsatellites,theleadingmodesofthemei-yucloudsystembetween1998and2008wereextractedbytheEmpiricalOrthogonalFunction(EOF)method,andthetransitionprocessesfromthefirsttypicalleadingmodetootherleadingmodeswerediscussedandcompared.Theanalysisshowsthat,whenthesouthernmode(EOF1)transformstothenortheasternmode(EOF3),inthemid-troposphere,alowtroughdevelopsandmovessoutheastwardovercentralandeasternChina.Thecirculationpatternischaracterizedbytwohighsandonelowinthelowertroposphere.AbeltoflowpressureissandwichedbetweentheweakhighovercentralandwesternChinaandthestrongwesternNorthPacificsubtropicalhigh(WNPSH).Coldairmovessouthwardalongthenortherlyflowbehindthelow,andmeetsthewarmandmoistairbetweentheWNPSHandtheforepartofthelowtrough,whichleadstocontinuousconvection.Atthesametime,thecentralextentoftheWNPSHincreaseswhileitsridgeextendswestward.Inaddition,transitionsfromthesouthernmodetothedualcentersmodeandthetropical-low-influencedmodewerefoundtobeatypical,andsonocommonpointscouldbeconcluded.Furthermore,thechoiceofthresholdvaluecanaffectthenumberofsamplesdiscussed.

简介：用大气的研究(NCEP/NCAR)和在冬季期间聚集的客观地分析的由空至海的热流动(OAFlux)的环境研究/公民中心的国家中心的每月的分析数据，单个向量分解(SVD)分析被进行揭示在在北方太平洋上在500hPa(Z500)加热异例和geopotential高度的自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流水兵之间的联合模式。第一个SVD模式证明当加热异例的北自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流水兵是积极的时，在北方太平洋的中央、西方的节的Z500是反常地低的。由填写气象学的领域异例在积极(或否定)年，这被揭示了当时阿留申群岛之土人低加深(或shallows)，在西北弯屈自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流加强的overlying(或变弱)并且导致近表面的空气凉爽(或温暖)。而且，这增加(或减少)向上的热流动异例并且冷却(或温暖)海表面温度(SST)因此。在自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流和它的下游的区域的附近，沿着纬度的空气温度的垂直结构是baroclinic；然而，geopotential高度是相等地barotropic，哪个礼品凉爽的马槽(或温暖的山脉)空间结构。分叉的风和垂直速度被介绍显示出异常带的发行量房间。这些被升起描绘(或下降)在中央诺思太平洋的空气，它向西流动并且向上面的对流层东方，下降(或上升)在自台湾东面的菲律宾海流向日本的暖流并且在北美洲的西方的节，然后加强(或变弱)中间纬度的带的房间(MZC)。

简介：Aconvection-allowingensembleforecastexperimentonasqualllinewasconductedbasedonthebreedinggrowthmode(BGM).Meanwhile,theprobabilitymatchedmean(PMM)andneighborhoodensembleprobability(NEP)methodswereusedtooptimizetheassociatedprecipitationforecast.Theensembleforecastpredictedtheprecipitationtendencyaccurately,whichwasclosertotheobservationthaninthecontrolforecast.Forheavyrainfall,theprecipitationcenterproducedbytheensembleforecastwasalsobetter.TheFractionsSkillScore(FSS)resultsindicatedthattheensemblemeanwasskillfulinlightrainfall,whilethePMMproducedbetterprobabilitydistributionofprecipitationforheavyrainfall.Preliminaryresultsdemonstratedthatconvection-allowingensembleforecastcouldimproveprecipitationforecastskillthroughprovidingvaluableprobabilityforecasts.Itisnecessarytoemploynewmethods,suchasthePMMandNEP,togenerateprecipitationprobabilityforecasts.Nonetheless,thelackofspreadandtheoverpredictionofprecipitationbytheensemblemembersarestillproblemsthatneedtobesolved.

简介：BasedonanalysesoftherelationshipbetweenPacificMeridionalMode(PMM)andnumberoftropicalcyclones(TCs)activityoverthewesternNorthPacific,theimpactsofthePMMonTcactivityoverthewesternNorthPacificarestudiedusingnumericalsimulationswithanAtmosphericGeneralCirculationModel(CAM3)ofNationalCenterforAtmosphericResearch(ofUSA).TheresultshowsthatthePMMhasimpactsonthelarge-scalegeneratingenvironmentofTCs,thusaffectingtheirnumberandstrength.ThenumericalsimulationsusingtheNCARCAM3indicatethatwiththeinclusionoftheforcingfromseasurfacetemperature(SST)ofthePMM,thereappearsadecreasedmagnitudeoftheverticalzonalwindshear,largeproportionofrelativehumidity,anomalouswesterlywindatlowlevelsandanomalouseasterlywindathighlevels,inassociationwithanomalouscycloniccirculationatlowlevelsandanomalousanti-cycloniccirculationathighlevelsoverthetropicalwesternPacific.Thus,thePMMprovidesfavorableenvironmentforthetyphoongenesis.Inthesensitivityexperiment,TCshavelargerstrength,lowerSSTatthecenter,strongertangentialwindat850hPaandintensifiedwarmcoresathighlevels.Inthispaper,thesimulationresultsaresimilartothatinthedataanalyses,whichrevealstheimportantimpactofthePMMonTCactivityoverthewesternNorthPacific.

简介：Icenucleatingparticle（INP）measurementsweremadeattwohigh-altitudestationsinIndia.AerosolscollectedonfilterpaperatGirawaliObservatory,InterUniversityCenterforAstronomy&Astrophysics（IGO）,andattheRadioAstronomyCenter,Ooty（RAC）,wereactivatedindepositionmodeusingathermalgradientdiffusionchambertodeterminetheINPconcentrations.ThemeasurementcampaignsatIGOwereconductedduring2011,2013and2014,andatRACduring2013and2014.Whentheaerosolsampleswereexposedtoanicesupersaturationofbetween5%and23%inthetemperaturerange-17.6?Cto-22?C,themaximumINPnumberconcentrationatIGOandRACwas1.0L-1and1.6L-1,respectively.Amaximumcorrelationcoefficientof0.76wasobservedbetweentheINPnumberconcentrationandicesupersaturation.TheairmasstrajectoriesanalyzedforthemeasurementcampaignsshowedthattheArabianDesertandaridregionswerethemainINPcontributors.ElementalanalysisofparticlesshowedthepresenceofNa,Cl,Si,Al,Fe,Cu,Co,Cd,S,MnandK,aswellassomerare-EarthelementslikeMo,Ru,La,Ce,VandZr.Whenaerosolsinthesizerange0.5–20μmwereconsidered,thefractionthatactedasINPswas1:104to1:106atIGO,and1:103to1:104atRAC.ThehigherratioofINPstoaerosolsatRACthanIGOmaybeattributabletothepresenceofrare-EarthelementsobservedintheaerosolsamplesatRAC,whichwereabsentatIGO.

简介：(1)SAM断然在Yangtze的中间、更低的活动范围与Mei-yu相关很好以便强壮的春季SAM被更多的降雨在河并且反过来也如此的ther各个在Mei-yu跟随。(2)SAM否定地与SST相关很好近海中国以便当时，强壮的春季SAM以后被近海的低SST和弱夏季风在东亚伴随高SST近海被强壮的夏季风在东亚跟随。(3)强壮的异常春天SAM的Inthe年，重要风切变在Yangtze的中间、更低的活动范围上统治空气的中间和底层；在弱异常春天SAM的年里，shear是到在诺思中国上的北方的更多。(4)怎么在Yangtze的中间、更低的活动范围上做SAM锁子甲Mei-yu降雨？为他们的关联的内部机制是什么？他们仍然保持不清楚并且需要推进学习。