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  • 简介:Extremewaterlevelisanimportantconsiderationwhendesigningcoastalprotectionstructures.However,frequencyanalysisrecommendedbystandardcodesonlyconsiderstheannualmaximumwaterlevel,whereaswaterlevelsshouldactuallyberegardedasacombinationofastronomicaltideandstormsurge.Thetwoimpactingfactorsarebothrandomvariables,andthispaperdiscussestheirdependencystructuresandproposesanewjointprobabilitymethodtodetermineextremedesignwaterlevels.Thelognormal,Gumbel,Weibull,Pearsontype3,traditionalmaximumentropy,andmodifiedmaximumentropydistributionsareappliedtofitunivariatedataofastronomicaltidesandstormsurgesseparately,andthebivariatenormal,Gumbel-Hougaard,FrankandClaytoncopulasarethenutilizedtoconstructtheirjointprobabilitydistributions.Toensurethatthenewdesignmethodissuitableforusewithtyphoondata,theannualoccurrencefrequencyoftyphoonprocessesisconsideredandcorrespondingbivariatecompoundprobabilitydistributionsareproposed.BasedonmaximumwaterleveldataobtainedfromHengmenhydrologicalstationinthePearlRiverBasin,China,theseprobabilitymodelsareappliedtoobtaindesignsforextremewaterlevelsusingthelargestsumoftheastronomicaltideandstormsurgeobtainedunderfixedjointreturnperiods.Thesedesignvaluesprovideanimprovedapproachfordeterminingthenecessaryheightofcoastalandoffshorestructures.

  • 标签: EXTREME water level astronomical TIDE STORM