Artificial neural network simulation for prediction of suspended sediment concentration in the River Ramganga, Ganges Basin, India

(整期优先)网络出版时间:2019-02-12
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Therelationbetweenthewaterdischarge(Q)andsuspendedsedimentconcentration(SSC)oftheRiverRamgangaatBareilly,UttarPradesh,intheHimalayas,hasbeenmodeledusingArtificialNeuralNetworks(ANNs).Thecurrentstudyvalidatesthepracticalcapabilityandusefulnessofthistoolforsimulatingcomplexnonlinear,realworld,riversystemprocessesintheHimalayanscenario.ThemodelingapproachisbasedonthetimeseriesdatacollectedfromJanuarytoDecember(2008-2010)forQandSSC.ThreeANNs(T1-T3)withdifferentnetworkconfigurationshavebeendevelopedandtrainedusingtheLevenbergMarquardtBackPropagationAlgorithmintheMatlabroutines.Networkswereoptimizedusingtheenumerationtechnique,and,finally,thebestnetworkisusedtopredicttheSSCvaluesfortheyear2011.ThevaluesthusobtainedthroughtheANNmodelarecomparedwiththeobservedvaluesofSSC.Thecoefficientofdetermination(R2),fortheoptimalnetworkwasfoundtobe0.99.ThestudynotonlyprovidesinsightintoANNmodelingintheHimalayanriverscenario,butitalsofocusesontheimportanceofunderstandingariverbasinandthefactorsthataffecttheSSC,beforeattemptingtomodelit.Despitethetemporalvariationsinthestudyarea,itispossibletomodelandsuccessfullypredicttheSSCvalueswithverysimplisticANNmodels.