Lastyear'seconomicgrowthintheEuropeanUnion,renewaloftheFranco-Germanaxis,andEUcohesioninresponsetoDonaldTrumpandBrexitoughttobehealthysignsofrecovery,butpopulism'srestraintaffectsEUintegration.IfthefalloutfromBrexitisanymeasureofthefuture,inconsistentleadershipwillbeforcedtododgeinternalandexternalcomplicationsforsometime,astheEUfacesintractablepoliticalandeconomicpressurefrommultipleparties.Althoughseparationandintegrationneednotremaindiametricalpoles,thedestiny,internationalstatus,andinfluenceoftheEUandmemberstateshasbeenpredicatedonintegration.Givencurrenteconomicanddemographicfactors,enhancingtheUnion'sattractivenesswhilehandlingotherissueswillmaketheEUaweakglobalactor.Lackingconfidence,strategiccohesionandprotectivedefenses,theEUinforthcomingyearscouldwitnessnosignificantprogress.EUmemberstatesarehauntedbypopulism,terrorism,extremismandeconomicinequality.Sino-EUrelationswillseecontinuedcooperationwithariskofturbulence.
