The K Method for Estimating Earthquake Activity Parameters and Effect of the Boundary Uncertainty of the Source Region:Discussion on the Seismic Zoning Method

(整期优先)网络出版时间:1997-03-13
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Twoaspectsofanewmethod,whichcanbeusedforseismiczoning,areintroducedinthispaper.Ontheonehand,theapproachtoestimatebvalueandannualactivityrateproposedbyKijkoandSellevollneedstousetheearthquakecatalogue.Theexistingearthquakecataloguecontainsbothhistoricalandrecentinstrumentaldatasetsanditisinadequatetouseonlyonepart.Combiningthelargenumberofhistoricaleventswithrecentcompleterecordsandtakingthemagnitudeuncertaintyintoaccount,Kijko’smethodgivesthemaximumlikelihoodestimationofbvalueandannualactivityrate,whichmightbemorerealistic.Ontheotherhand,thismethodconsidersthesourcezoneboundaryuncertaintyinseismichazardanalysis,whichmeanstheearthquakeactivityrateacrossaboundaryofasourcezonechangessmoothlyinsteadofabruptlyandavoidstoolargeagradientinthecalculatedresults.