Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS＇s Model Climate Change Scenario-中国期刊网

摘要 Netprimaryproduction(NPP)ofcroprepresentsthecapacityofsequestratingatmosphericCO_2inagro-ecosystem,anditplaysanimportantroleinterrestrialcarboncycling.BylinkingtheCrop-CmodelwithclimatechangescenarioprojectedbyacoupledGCMFGOALSviageographicalinformationsystem(GIS)techniques,cropNPPinChinawassimulatedfrom2000to2050.ThenationalaveragedsurfaceairtemperaturefromFGOALSisprojectedtoincreaseby1.0℃overthisperiodandthecorrespondingatmosphericCO_2concentrationis535ppmby2050undertheIPCCAIBscenario.Withaspatialresolutionof10×10km~2,modelsimulationindicatedthatanannualaverageincreaseof0.6TgCyr~(-1)(Tg=10~(12)g)wouldbepossibleundertheAIBscenario.TheNPPinthelate2040swouldincreaseby5%(30TgC)withinthe98×10~6hm~2croplandareaincontrastwiththatintheearly2000s.AfurtherinvestigationsuggestedthatchangesintheNPPwouldnotbeevenlydistributedinChina.AhigherincreasewouldoccurinamajorityofregionslocatedineasternandnorthwesternChina,whileaslightreductionwouldappearinHebeiandTianjininnorthernChina.ThespatialcharacteristicsofthecropNPPchangeareattributedprimarilytotheunevendistributionoftemperaturechange.

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Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS＇s Model Climate Change Scenario

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Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS＇s Model Climate Change Scenario

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