摘要
TheimpactsofclimatechangeonChina'sagriculturearemeasuredbasedonRicardianmodel.Byusingcounty-levelcross-sectionaldataonagriculturalnetrevenue,climate,andothereconomicandgeographicaldatafor1275agriculture-dominatedcountiesintheperiodof1985-1991,wefindthatbothhighertemperatureandmoreprecipitationwillhaveoverallpositiveimpactonChina'sagriculture.However,theimpactsvaryseasonallyandregionally.Highertemperatureinallseasonsexceptspringincreasesagriculturalnetrevenuewhilemoreprecipitationisbeneficialinwinterbutisharmfulinsummer.Applyingthemodeltofiveclimatescenariosinthe2020sand2050sshowsthattheNorth,theNortheast,theNorthwest,andtheQinghai-TibetPlateauwouldalwaysbenefitfromclimatechangewhiletheSouthandtheSouthwestmaybenegativelyaffected.FortheEastandtheCentralChina,mostscenariosshowthattheymaybenefitfromclimatechange.Inconclusion,climatechangewouldbebeneficialtothewholeChina.
出版日期
2001年02月12日(中国期刊网平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)