摘要
Theindustrialsectorisusuallythelargesteconomysectorforcarbonemissionsinmanycountries,whichmadeitthesectorwithgreatestpotentialforcarbonreductionalthoughtheprocessdurationmightbeverylong.StudyingthepotentialofindustrialemissionreductionhasgreatsignificanceinestimatingthecarbonemissionpeakofChinaontheonehand,andadjustingitsstrategyininternationalclimatechangenegotiations.Byemployingtheeconomicaccountingmethod,thisarticleestimatestheemissionreductionpotentialofChina’sIndustrialsectorfortheperiodof2010-2050.Itrevealsthat,taking2030astheyearwhentheemissionreachesthepeak,thetotalreductioncanbe8.38billiontons(bts)fortheperiodof2010-2030,with3.12btsfromstructuralreductionwhile5.26btsfromintensityreduction.Afterwards,reductionwillcontinuewithatotalamountof6.59btsfortheperiodof2030-2050,wherethestructuralreductionaccountsfor2.47bts,andintensityreduction4.115bts.Ifbothindustrialandenergyconsumptionstructuresareimprovedduringtheaboveperiod,thereductionpotentialcanbeevengreater,e.g.theemissionpeakcanarrivefiveyearsearlier(intheyearof2025)andthepeakvaluecandeclinebyabout8%ascomparedtotheoriginalestimation.Reviewingthetrajectoryofemissionchangesindevelopedcountriesindicatesthattheindustrysectorcancontributetotheoverallreductiontargetsthroughthedualwheelsofstructuralreductionandintensityreduction,evenbeyondtheemissionpeak.Thisarticleconcludeswiththefollowingpolicysuggestions.(1)OurestimationontheemissionpeakoftheindustrialsectorsuggeststhatChinashouldavoidanycommitmentearlierthan2030onthetimelineoftheoverallemissionpeak;(2)thegreatpotentialofindustrialemissionreductioncanimprovethesituationofChinainclimatechangenegotiation,wheretheintensityreductioncanserveasanimportantpolicyoption.(3)Reductionpotentialcanbefurtherenhancedthroughtechnologyadv
出版日期
2015年03月13日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
