摘要
Background:Inrecentdecades,nativeAraucariaforestsinBrazilhavebecomefragmentedduetotheconversionofforesttoagriculturallandsandcommercialtreeplantations.Consequently,theforestdynamicsinthisforesttypehavebeenpoorlyinvestigated,asmostfragmentsarepoorlystructuredintermsoftreesizeanddiversity.Methods:Wedevelopedadistance-independentindividualtree-growthmodeltosimulatetheforestdynamicsinanativeAraucariaforestlocatedpredominantlyinsouthernBrazil.Thedatawerederivedfrom25contiguousplots(1ha)establishedinaprotectedarealeftundisturbedforthepast70years.Theplotsweremeasuredat3-yearintervalsfromtheirestablishmentin2002.Alltreesabovea10-cmdiameteratbreastheightweretagged,identifiedastospecies,andmeasured.Becausethisforesttypecompriseshundredsoftreespecies,weclusteredthemintosixecologicalgroups:understory,subcanopy,uppercanopyshade-tolerant,uppercanopylight-demanding,pioneer,andemergent.Thediameterincrement,survival,andrecruitmentsub-modelswerefittedforeachspeciesgroup,andparameterswereimplementedinasimulationsoftwaretoprojecttheforestdynamics.Thegrowthmodelwasvalidatedusingindependentdatacollectedfromanotherresearchareaofthesameforesttype.Tosimulatetheforestdynamics,weprojectedthespeciesgroupandstandbasalareasfor50yearsunderthreedifferentstand-densityconditions:low,average,andhigh.Results:Emergentspeciestendedtogrowinbasalarea,irrespectiveoftheforestdensityconditions.Conversely,shade-tolerantspeciestendedtodeclineovertheyears.Underlow-densityconditions,themodelshowedagrowthtendencyforthestandbasalarea,whileunderaverage-densityconditions,forestgrowthtendedtostabilizewithin30years.Underhigh-densityconditions,themodelindicatedadeclineinthestandbasalareafromtheonsetofthesimulation,suggestingthatundertheseconditions,theforesthasalreadyreachedit
出版日期
2016年03月13日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
