摘要
Anoptimizationmethodisbasedtodesignasnowfallestimatemethodbyradarforoperationalsnowwarning,anderrorestimationisanalyzedthroughacaseofheavysnowonMarch4,2007.Threemodifiedschemesaredevelopedforerrorscausedbytemperaturechanges,snowflaketerminalvelocity,thedistancefromtheradarandcalculationmethods.Duetotheimprovements,thecorrelationcoefficientbetweentheestimatedsnowfallandtheobservationis0.66(exceedingthe99%confidencelevel),theaveragerelativeerrorisreducedto48.74%,andthemethodisabletoestimateweaksnowfallof0.3mm/handheavysnowfallabove5mm/h.Thecorrelationcoefficientis0.82betweentheestimatedsnowfallfromthestations50to100kmfromtheradarandtheobservation.Theimprovedeffectisweakwhentheinfluenceofthesnowflaketerminalvelocityisconsideredinthosethreeimprovementprograms,whichmayberelatedtotheuniformecho.Theradarestimateofsnow,whichisclassifiedbythedistancebetweenthesampleandtheradar,hasthemostobviouseffect:itcannotonlyincreasethedegreeofsimilarity,butalsoreducetheoverestimateandtheundervaluationoftheerrorcausedbythedistancebetweenthesampleandtheradar.Theimprovedalgorithmfurtherimprovestheaccuracyoftheestimate.Theaveragerelativeerrorsare31%and27%fortheheavysnowfallof1.6to2.5mm/handabove2.6mm/h,respectively,buttheradaroverestimatesthesnowfallunder1.5mm/handunderestimatesthesnowfallabove2.6mm/h.Radarechomaynotbesensitivetotheintensityofsnowfall,andtheconsistencyshownbytheerrorcanbeexploitedtoreviseandimprovetheestimationaccuracyofsnowforecastintheoperationalwork.
出版日期
2015年01月11日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
