简介:PhasecompositeanalysesareconductedtoinvestigatethepossibleeffectoftheMadden–Julianoscillation(MJO)onthespringrainfallanomaliesinEastChinabyusingtheReal-timeMultivariateMJO(RMM)indexfromAustralianMeteorologicalBureau.Theresultsshowthattherainfallanomaliesoverthemid-andlower-valleyofYangtzeRiverarepositivewhentheMJOshiftseastwardtothemid-andeastern-IndianOcean,andanomalousprecipitationoverSouthChinaarepositivewhentheMJOmovesfurthereastwardtothemaritimecontinent,whereasspringrainfallanomaliesoverEastChinaarenegativeintheotherMJOepisodes.TheMJOimpactsontheprecipitationoverEastChinaresultfromthechangesinlarge-scaleatmosphericcirculationaswellasvorticityandwatervaportransportationinthemid-andlower-troposphere.
简介:ThisstudyusesNCEP/NCARdailyreanalysisdata,NOAAoutgoinglong-waveradiation(OLR)data,thereal-timemultivariateMJO(RMM)indexfromtheAustralianBureauofMeteorologyandTibetanPlateauvortex(TPV)datafromtheChengduInstituteofPlateauMeteorologytodiscussmodulationoftheMadden-JulianOscillation(MJO)ontheTibetanPlateauVortex(TPV).Waveletandcompositeanalysisareused.ResultsshowthattheMJOplaysanimportantroleintheoccurrenceoftheTPVthatthenumberofTPVsgeneratedwithinanactiveperiodoftheMJOisthreetimesasmuchasthatduringaninactiveperiod.Inaddition,duringtheactiveperiod,thenumberoftheTPVsgeneratedinphases1and2islargerthanthatinphases3and7.Aftercompositingphases1and7separately,allmeteorologicalelementsinphase1areapparentlyconducivetothegenerationoftheTPV,whereasthoseinphase7aresomewhatconstrained.Withitseastwardpropagationprocess,theMJOconvectioncentrespreadseastward,andtheverticalcirculationwithinthetropicalatmospherechanges.Duetotheinteractionbetweenthemid-latitudeandlow-latitudeatmosphere,changesoccurinthebarocliniccharacteristicsoftheatmosphere,theavailablepotentialenergyandeddyavailablepotentialenergyoftheatmosphere,andthecirculationstructuresoftheatmosphereovertheTibetanPlateau(TP)andsurroundingareas.Thisresultsinsignificantlydifferentwatervapourtransportationandlatentheatdistribution.Advantageousanddisadvantageousconditionsthereforealternate,leadingtoasignificantdifferenceamongthenumbersofplateauvortexindifferentphases.
简介:Thisstudyfocusesonthedecadalvariabilityoftropicalcyclones(TC)overtheWesternNorthPacific(WNP)andhowthesechangesarerelatedtotheMadden-JulianOscillation(MJO).ItwasdonewiththehelpoftheReal-timeMultivariateMJOindexfromtheAustralianGovernmentBureauofMeteorologyoftheCentreforAustralianWeatherandClimateResearch,TCdatafromtheJointTyphoonWarmingCenterbesttrackdatasets,anddailyandmonthlydatasetsfromtheNCEP/NCARreanalysiscenter.TheresultsshowthattheTCfrequencyintheWNPexhibitedastatisticallysignificantdecreaseduring1998-2010comparedtoduring1979-1997.ThedecreaseinTCfrequencyintheWNPmainlyoccurredduringMJOactivephases(i.e.,phases4,5,6,and7).FurtherinvestigationoftheclimatebackgroundandthepropagationdifferencesoftheMJObetween1979-1997and1998-2010wasperformed.TheLaNina-liketropicalseasurfacetemperaturecoolingcausedstrongerWalkercirculationandthusinducedunfavorableatmosphereconditionsforWNPTCgenesisincludingalow-leveleasterlyanomaly,anegativerelativevorticityanomaly,anincreaseinsea-levelpressure,andstrongerverticalwindshear.Moreover,shorteningoftheMJOcycle,declineinthedurationoftheactivephasesintheWNP,andeasterlyanomalyandshrinkageoftheconvectionareaduringMJOactivephasesmayalsopartlyexplainthedecadalvariationofTC.
简介:与Zebiak藤条模型和parameterized一起强迫的intraseasonal的随机的表示,为ElNi的春天可预测性障碍(SPB)上的Madden-Jullian摆动(MJO)的无常的影响?o南部的摆动(ENSO)预言被学习。强迫的MJO的parameterized形式身体上被加到Zebiak藤条模型在与ElNi联系的SPB上获得所谓的Zebiak-Cane-MJO模型然后起始的错误,随机的模型错误,和他们的联合错误模式的效果?o预言被估计。当起始的错误能做时,结果证明强迫的随机的MJO引起的模型错误几乎不能导致重要SPB;而且,起始的错误的联合错误模式和与随机的MJO强迫联系的模型错误能也导致重要SPB。这些证明起始的错误可能是SPB的主要错误来源,它可以为ENSO预报提供数据吸收的一个理论基础。
简介:PossiblerelationshipsbetweenMJOandthesevererain-snowweatherinEasternChinaduringNovemberof2009areanalyzedandresultsshowthatastrongMJOprocessisoneofthestrongimpactfactors.MJOisveryactiveovertheIndianOceaninNovember2009.Especially,itmaintains9daysinMJOphase3,justcorrespondingtothetwostrongestrain-snowprocesses.CompositesofMJOeventsshowthatwhentheMJOconvectivecenterislocatedovertheIndianOcean,theprobabilityofrainfallissignificantlyincreasedandthetemperatureislowerthannormalineasternChina,whichisconsistentwiththesituationinNovemberof2009.Atmosphericcirculationanomaliesofmid-andhigher-latitudescanbeinfluencedbythetropicalMJOconvectionforcingandthisinfluencecouldberealizedbyteleconnection.WhentheMJOisovertheIndianOcean,itisfavorableforthemaintenanceofacirculationpatternoftworidgesversusonetroughatmid-andhigher-latitudes.Meanwhile,thewesternPacificsubtropicalhighisstrongerandmorewestwardthannormal,andasignificantconvectivebeltappearsovereasternEastAsia.AllthesecirculationanomaliesshowninthecompositeresultalsoappearedintheobservationsinNovember2009,whichindicatesthegeneralfeaturesofrelationshipsbetweentheMJOandthecirculationanomaliesovertheextratropics.Besidesthezonalcirculationanomalies,theMJOconvectioncanalsoleadtomeridionalcirculationanomalies.WhentheMJOconvectionislocatedovertheIndianOcean,thewesternPacificisdominatedbyanomalousdescendingmotion,andtheeasternEastAsiaiscontrolledbystrongconvergenceandascendingmotion.Therefore,ananomalousmeridionalcirculationisformedbetweenthetropicsandmiddlelatitudes,enhancingthenorthwardtransportationoflow-levelmoisture.Itispotentiallyhelpfultounderstandingandevenforecastingsuchkindofrain-snowweatheranomaliesasthatinNovember2009usingMJO.