简介：AstochasticmodelfordailyprecipitationsimulationinChinawasdevelopedbasedontheframeworkofa′Richardson-type′weathergeneratorthatisanimportanttoolinstudyingimpactsofweather/climateonavarietyofsystemsincludingecosystemandriskassessment.ThepurposeofthisworkistodevelopaweathergeneratorforapplicationsinChina.Thefocusisonprecipitationsimulationsincedeterminationofotherweathervariablessuchastemperatureisdependentonprecipitationsimulation.AframeworkoffirstorderMarkovChainwithGammaDistributionfordailyprecipitationisadoptedinthiswork.Basedonthisframework,fourparametersofprecipitationsimulationforeachmonthat672stationsalloverChinaweredeterminedusingdailyprecipitationdatafrom1961to2000.Comparedwithpreviousworks,ourestimationfortheparameterswasmadeformorestationsandlongerobservations,whichmakestheweathergeneratormoreapplicableandreliable.Spatialdistributionsofthefourparametersareanalyzedinaregionalclimatecontext.Theseasonalvariationsoftheseparametersatfivestationsrepresentingregionaldifferencesarediscussed.Basedontheestimatedmonthlyparametersat672stations,dailyprecipitationsforanyperiodcanbesimulated.A30-yearsimulationwasmadeandcomparedwithobservationsduring1971-2000intermsofannualandmonthlystatistics.Theresultsaresatisfactory,whichdemonstratestheusefulnessoftheweathergenerator.

简介：强对流天气是浙江省主要的灾害性天气之一.利用常规观测资料,Micaps、多普勒雷达等资料,对浙江省2011年梅雨期2次强对流过程进行对比分析,结果表明：6月9日强对流,主要表现为冰雹和雷雨大风;6月18日强对流,主要表现为短时强降水.天气形势上,前者为西风槽型,后者为大陆高压型,2次过程都对应一支西南急流,显然后者的强度更大.探空和对流指数上,前者上干下湿,不稳定条件和对流指数优于后者.雷达回波图上,前者中高层强回波悬垂,出现＂穹隆＂结构,强回波平均高度和垂直积分液态含水量明显高于后者,后者为回波结构致密,低质心高效率的强降水回波.