简介：ThepentadaverageminimumoutgoingIongwaveradiation(OLR)dataoverthenorthernSouthChinaSea(SCS)areselectedasindexestoanalyzetheintensityoftheconvectionconnectedwiththeSCSmonsoononset.StatisticanalysisdemonstratesthattheindexcanaccountfortheintensityoftheSCSmonsoonabout,atleast,75%.Asignificantnegativecorrelation(confidentlevelover90%)betweenShandong'ssummerrainfallandtheindexisfoundonlyintheperiodof24-26pentadsandlimitedtotheareaabovethedeeperwaterbasinoftheSCS(10°-20°N,110°-117.5°E).ThustheminimumOLRoverthedeeperwaterbasinduring24-26pentadscanbeusedasavaluablepredictorforthelong-leadforecastoftheprecipitation.The500hPageopotentialheightdataintheNorthernHemispherefortheperiodfrom1951to2000areusedinordertocharacterizethephysicalmechanismsinvolved.Thecompositeanomaliesofthe500hPalevelallowfortheidentificationanddetectionoftheteleconnectionoftheEastAsia-NorthAmerica(EAP)patternthatisresponsibletosomeextentfortheinterannualvariabilityoftheprecipitationofShandongProvince.Besides,theinterannualdifferencesoftheintraseasonalvariations(ISV)ofOLRandtheirnorthwardtransmissionprobablymakeacontributiontothepositionofthesubtropicalhighwhichisvitalforthesummerrainfallintheprovince.