简介：ThenumericalsolutionofBoussinesqequationsisworkedoutasaninitial-valueproblemtostudytheeffectoftheinstabilitiesofflowontheinitialerrorgrowthandmesoscalepredictability.Thedevelopmentofweathersystemsdependsondifferentdynamicinstabilitymechanismsaccordingtothespatialscalesofthesystemandthedevelopmentofmesoscalesystemsisdeterminedbysymmetricinstability.Sincesymmetricinstabilitydominatesamongthethreetypesofdynamicinstability,itmakesthepredictionoftheassociatedmesoscalesystemsmoresensitivetoinitialuncertainties.Thisindicatesthatthestrongerinstabilityleadstofasterinitialerrorgrowthandthuslimitsthemesoscalepredictability.Besidesdynamicinstability,theimpactofthermodynamicinstabilityisalsoexplored.Theevolvementofconvectiveinstabilitymanifestsasdramaticvariationinsmallspatialscaleandshorttemporalscale,andfurthermore,itexhibitstheupscalegrowth.Sincethesefeaturesdeterminetheinitialerrorgrowth,themesoscalesystemsarisingfromconvectiveinstabilityarelesspredictableandtheupscaleerrorgrowthlimitsthepredictabilityoflargerscales.Thelatentheatingisresponsibleforchangingthestabilityofflowandsubsequentlyinfluencingtheerrorgrowthandthepredictability.