简介：Inordertominimizetheharmcausedbytheinstabilityofaplaningcraft,amotionpredictionmodelisessential.ThispaperanalyzedthefeasibilityofusinganMGM(1,N)modelingreysystemtheorytopredictplaningcraftmotionandcarriedoutthenumericalsimulationexperiment.Accordingtothecharacteristicsofplaningcraftmotion,arecurrenceformulawasproposedoftheparametermatrixofanMGM(1,N)model.Usingthisformula,datacanbeupdatedinreal-timewithoutincreasingcomputationalcomplexitysignificantly.TheresultsofnumericalsimulationshowthatusinganMGM(1,N)modeltopredictplaningmotionisfeasibleandusefulforprediction.Sothemethodproposedinthisstudycanreflecttheplaningcraftmotionmechanismsuccessfully,andhasrationalandeffectivefunctionsofforecastingandanalyzingtrends.