摘要
TyphoonMegi,the13thtyphoonofthe2010typhoonseason,wasselectedforcasestudybyutilizingtheWeatherResearchandForecasting(WRF)model.Twelvesensitivityexperimentswithvariousinitialtropicalcyclone(TC)intensitiesandsizeswereconductedtoinvestigatetheirimpactsonthesimulationoftyphoontrack.InteractionbetweenTCandthewesternPacificsubtropicalhigh(WPSH)wasalsoanalyzedtoexplorethemechanismfortheimpactonTCtrackoftheinitialTCintensityandsize.NumericalresultsindicatethatthesimulatedTCsizeandTCtrackaresensitivetoinitialTCintensityandsize.StrongerinitialTCintensityandlargerinitialTCsizeoftenleadtolargersimulatedTCsizeandmakeTCturnnorthwardearlier.Furtheranalysissuggeststhat,withtheincreaseofinitialTCintensityandsize,moreairmassentersintotheTCregion,whichsubsequentlyreducestheextentofWPSH.Asaresult,thesteeringflowchangessignificantlyandeventuallycausestheTCtoturnnorthwardearlier.ThepresentstudyconfirmsthattheinitialTCintensityandsizehavecertaininfluencesontheTCtracksimulation,whichdemonstratestheimportanceofaccurateinitialconditionforsuccessfulsimulationoftheTCintensityandTCtrack.Moreover,italsodeepensourunderstandingoftheinteractionbetweenTCandWPSH,provideshelpfulcluesfortheTCtrackchangestudy,anddiscussesthefuturedirectionsforimprovementofTCtrackforecast.
出版日期
2017年05月15日（中国期刊网平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）
