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139 个结果
  • 简介:根据强壮的ENSO处理的1982/1983的比较,象快速的开发,巨大的紧张和突然的撤退那样的关键特征在1997/1998关于温暖的事件被揭示,为这个过程在它海洋和空气的发作和进化期间为热带印度洋和西方的太平洋管理intraseasonal摆动的特征特征地详细被学习。

  • 标签: 1997/1998 WARM EPISODE SST INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION
  • 简介:与Zebiak藤条模型和parameterized一起强迫的intraseasonal的随机的表示,为ElNi的春天可预测性障碍(SPB)上的Madden-Jullian摆动(MJO)的无常的影响?o南部的摆动(ENSO)预言被学习。强迫的MJO的parameterized形式身体上被加到Zebiak藤条模型在与ElNi联系的SPB上获得所谓的Zebiak-Cane-MJO模型然后起始的错误,随机的模型错误,和他们的联合错误模式的效果?o预言被估计。当起始的错误能做时,结果证明强迫的随机的MJO引起的模型错误几乎不能导致重要SPB;而且,起始的错误的联合错误模式和与随机的MJO强迫联系的模型错误能也导致重要SPB。这些证明起始的错误可能是SPB的主要错误来源,它可以为ENSO预报提供数据吸收的一个理论基础。

  • 标签: ENSO事件 不确定性 预报 振荡 ENSO预测 模型误差
  • 简介:厄尔尼诺是一种发生在秘鲁海岸以外太平洋中部和东部海域表层海水的大规模异常变暖现象,同时伴随着影响环太平洋地区很大范围内天气类型的大气变化。这包括南方涛动指数出现负值(该指数的作用是衡量东太平洋和西太平洋之间的大气压差),以及在太平洋热带海域信风的不断弱化和云量的增加。厄尔尼诺是海洋方面的组成部分,而南方涛动是大气方面的组成部分。

  • 标签: 厄尔尼诺现象
  • 简介:Inthisstudy,twopossiblepersistentanomaliesoftheMadden-JulianOscillationmode(MJO)arefoundinthesummerseason(persistentlyPacificactiveandIndianOceanactive),andanindexissettodefinetheintensityofthetwomodes.TheyareprovedtohavehighstatisticalcorrelationstothelaterENSOeventsintheautumnandwinterseasons:WhenpersistentanomalyofMJOhappensinthePacificOceaninsummer,ElNinoeventsareofteninducedduringtheautumnandwinterseasonsofthatyear.However,duringtheotherMJOmodewhenthesummerpersistentanomalyofMJOoccursintheIndianOcean,LaNinaeventsoftenfollowinstead.TheanalysisoftheatmosphericcirculationfieldindicatesthatpersistentanomalyofMJOcanprobablyaffecttheentireEquatorialPacificcirculation,andresultsinwindstressanomalies.Thewindstressanomaliescouldexcitewarmorcoldwatermasseswhichpropagateeastwardsatthesubsurfaceocean.TheaccumulationofwarmorcoldsubsurfacewaterintheEquatorialEasternPacificOceanmayeventuallyleadtotheformationofanENSO.

  • 标签: MJO ENSO wind stress sea surface
  • 简介:芬兰、瑞典合资,林业、纸浆、包装和可再生材料公司StoraEnso推出ECORFID标签技术,旨在为零售商和工业制造商提供完整、可持续发展的RFID解决方案。该标签不含有塑料,去除了芯片附着制程中的所有致癌物质,镍颗粒和其他有毒物质,标签可以进行回收利用。

  • 标签: ENSO RFID标签 可再生材料 可持续发展 致癌物质 有毒物质
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  • 简介:利用中国科学院大气物理研究所设计发展的具有较高分辨率的热带太平洋和全球大气耦合环流模式,设计了一个初始化方案,建立了ENSO预测系统,进行了系统性的预测试验。预测结果检验评估表明,该预测系统表现出较强的预报能力,赤道中东太平洋地区(Nino3和Nino34)海表温度距平预报相关技巧高于052的预报可持续18个月,该预测系统可应用到试验性的海温预测实践中。利用该系统对1997/1998年ENSO进行了实际预测,表明预测是成功的,预测的海温距平已提供给今年我国夏季降水预测使用,取得了良好的预测效果。

  • 标签: 海气耦合环流模式 初始化 ENSO预测 1997/1998ENSO
  • 简介:TheanalysisoftherelationshipbetweenseaiceinArcticandAntarctic,andtheSouthernOscillationIndex(SOI)variationonthetemporalscaleofmonth,seasonandyearismadeinthispaper.ThenegativecorrelationbetweenseaiceinArcticandtheSOI.andthepositivecorrelationbetweenseaiceinAntarcticandtheSOIarefound.ThevariationofseaiceinAntarcticPacificseemstoplayanimportantroleintheinfluencetoatmosphere.Theirnonlinearrelationshipspresentmorestronglythanthelinearrelationshipbetweenthem.TherelationshipbetweenseaiceinArcticandAntarcticandtheSOIintheearlystageisinvestigated.Theirvariationshowsperiodicphenomena.ThemaximumcorrelationisusedtobuildthemodelforforecastingthevariationoftheSOIontheconditionoftheseaiceinArcticandAntarctic.Theexplainedvarianceofthesimulatedseriesisgreaterthan0.90.Thereexistsa17-monthperiodintherelationshipbetweenseaiceinArcticandAntarcticandSOI.Theexistingofthecommonfactorwithlargerscaleisdiscussedinthispaper.

  • 标签: analysis of time SCALE nonlinear RELATIONSHIP
  • 简介:用分析,数据由大气的研究的环境预言/公民中心的美国国家中心提供了,在ElNino南部的摆动(ENSO)周期之间的潜在的关系和在从1950~2008的欧亚大陆(乌拉尔,贝加尔湖,和鄂霍次克海)的三个关键区域的堵住的高度被分析。500hPageopotential高度地的合成分析在ElNino的冬季在ENSO的不同阶段期间揭示那(在)年,有在三个关键区域的geopotential高度的重要否定异例。在拉·尼娜(行)年的冬季,在另一方面,geopotential高度的重要积极异例在东方乌拉尔,贝加尔湖,和鄂霍次克海被观察。在夏天,鄂霍次克海展出积极异例,它在一行年的发展中的阶段期间由学生的t测试在90%的信心水平是重要的。在一EN年的发展中的阶段,在500hPa的geopotential高度地表明积极(否定)在贝加尔湖(乌拉尔和鄂霍次克海)的异例,当在500hPa的geopotential高度地展出时积极(否定)在乌拉尔和鄂霍次克海(贝加尔湖)的异例在腐烂的阶段期间在并且行年。然而,这些反常在一在年发展是不足道的,在一腐烂的行年的年,和夏天腐烂。由在ENSO周期的不同阶段期间分析500hPageopotential高度地,案例研究的结果与合成analysis.Annual一般水准堵住的那些一致,这被观察同样与合成分析和案例研究从1950~2008.Combined在ENSO的不同阶段期间被检验,结果显示在三个关键区域的堵住被压制(提高)在冬季期间在(行)年。在夏天,在三个关键区域的堵住上的ENSO的影响在冬季不象那一样重要。显然,开发行可以在堵住上在Okhotsk.Influence因素提高堵住各种各样、复杂。这份报纸显示堵住上的ENSO的影响不能被忽视,并且它对作为一个潜在的信号的相关运作的预报关键。

  • 标签: 堵住高度 ENSO 关系 合成分析
  • 简介:在中国和ENSO事件和NinoZ的热带气旋(TC)在1951~2005期间索引的landfalling的数据被用来从7月在China.ENSO事件学习在ENSO和landfallingTC之间的关系到9月在中国在landfallingTC上有明显的效果。当ElNi(n)o全部坚持这些月时,landfallingTC的频率是不到正常,landfallingTC的季节更短,乍见陆地首先每年是以后的,乍见陆地上次每年更早,并且吝啬的紧张更强壮,更多的landfallingTC完成台风的紧张。否则为LaNi(n)是真的一。那是说,从7月演变到9月的ENSO事件在中国为landfallingTC显示出强壮的预言信号。当当NinoZ索引通过9月在7月保持中立时,ENSO在一年里结束或开始时,landfallingTC也有ENSO的一些影响。ElNi(n)o事件比LaNifia事件在landfallingTC上有更重要的效果。

  • 标签: ENSO landfalling TC NinoZ 索引
  • 简介:Interannualvariabilityoflandfallingtropicalcyclones(TCs)inChinaduring1960-2010isinvestigated.Byusingthemethodofpartialleastsquaresregression(PLS-regression),canonicalENSOandENSOModokiareidentifiedtobethefactorsthatcontributetotheinterannualvariabilityoflandfallingTCs.ElNioModokiyearsareassociatedwithagreater-than-averagefrequencyoflandfallingTCsinChina,butreversedincanonicalElNioyears.SignificantdifferenceingenesislocationsoflandfallingTCsinChinaforthetwokindsofElNiophasesoccursdominantlyinthenortherntropicalwesternNorthPacific(WNP).Thepatternsoflow-levelcirculationanomaliesandoutgoinglongwaveradiation(OLR)anomaliesassociatedwithlandfallingTCgenesiswithdifferenttypesofElNiophasesareexamined.DuringcanonicalElNioyears,abroadzonalbandofpositiveOLRanomaliesdominatesthetropicalWNP,whilethecirculationanomaliesexhibitameridionallysymmetricaldipolepatternwithananticyclonicanomalyinthesubtropicsandacyclonicanomalynearthetropics.InElNioModokiyears,avastregionofnegativeOLRanomalies,roughlytothesouthof25°Nwithastronglarge-scalecyclonicanomalyoverthetropicalWNP,providesamorefavorableconditionforlandfallingTCgenesiscomparedtoitscounterpartduringcanonicalElNioyears.FormorelandfallingTCsformedinthenortherntropicalWNPinElNioModokiyears,therearemoreTCsmakinglandfallonthenortherncoastofChinainElNioModokiyearsthanincanonicalElNioyears.ThenumberoflandfallingTCsisslightlyabovenormalincanonicalLaNiayears.EnhancedconvectionisfoundintheSouthChinaSea(SCS)andthewestofthetropicalWNP,whichresultsinlandfallingTCsformingmorewestwardincanonicalLaNiayears.DuringLaNiaModokiyears,thelandfallingTCfrequencyarebelownormal,owingtoanunfavorableconditionforTCgenesispersistinginabroadzonalbandfrom5°Nto25°N.SincethewesternNorthPacificsubtropicalhi

  • 标签: landfalling tropical CYCLONE INTERANNUAL variability CANONICAL
  • 简介:TheV^t-integralasdefinedin[2],whichiseqnivalenttoM^2-integrslasdefinedinTrigonometreseriesbyZygmundisusedtosumtrigonometricseiesin[1].Inthispaper,someconvergenttheoremsofV^2-integralareestablished.

  • 标签: V^t-积分 单调性 收敛定理 振动函数 三角序列
  • 简介:Thedelaydifferentialequationwithpiecewiseconstantargumentx′(t)+a(t)x(t)+b(t)x([t-k])=0isconsidered,wherea(t)andb(t)arecontinuousfunctionson[—k,∞),b(t)≥0,kisapositiveintegerand[·]denotesthegreatestintegerfunction.Somenewoscillationandnonoscillationconditionsareobtained.

  • 标签: 延迟微分方程 分段常数 振动方程 连续函数
  • 简介:Temporalandspatialevolutioncharacteristicsofthe30-60dayoscillation(intraseasonaloscillation,ISO)ofsummerrainfallinChinaandtheeffectsofEastAsianmonsoonontherainfallISOareanalyzedinthispaper.Resultsshowthattheannualanddecadalvariationsoftheoscillationexistbetween1960and2008,andtheintensityisweakestinthelate1970sandearly1980s.InthetypicalstrongyearsoftherainfallISOobtainedfromempiricalorthogonalfunctions(EOFmode1),ananticycloneisinnorthwesternPacificandacycloneisintheeastofChina.Inthetypicalweakyears,thewindISOismuchweaker.Thelow-frequencyzonalwindandwatervaportransportfromthelowlatitudestomid-latitudesinthetypicalstrongyears,andtheoscillationstrengthofdiabaticheatingismuchstrongerthanthatintheweakyearsoftherainfallISO.TheanomalycharacteristicsoftherainfallISOshowanti-phasesbetweentheYangtzeRiverbasinandsouthofChina.AsforthetypicalstrongyearsoftherainfallISOintheYangtzeRiverbasin(EOFmode2),themainoscillationcenterofwatervaporisintheeastofChina(20-30°N,110-130°E).Inthepeak(break)phaseoftherainfalloscillation,alow-frequencycyclone(anticyclone)isintheYangtzeRiverbasinandananticyclone(cyclone)isnearTaiwanIsland.Inaddition,thepeakrainfallcorrespondstotheheatsourceintheYangtzeRiverbasinandtheheatsinkintheQinghai-TibetPlateau.AsforthetypicalstrongyearsoftherainfallISOinthesouthofChina,themainoscillationcenterofwatervaporissouthof20°N.Inthepeak(break)phaseoftherainfallISO,alow-frequencycyclone(anticyclone)isinthesouthofChinaandananticyclone(cyclone)isinthePhilippines.ThepeakrainfallcorrespondstotheheatsourceinthesouthofChinaandtheSouthChinaSea,andtheheatsinkinthewestofIndochina.

  • 标签: 热带气象 气象学 天气学 气团
  • 简介:Theatmosphericintraseasonaloscillation(ISO)anditsinterannualvariabilityaresimulatedbytheatmosphericgeneralcirculationmodel,whichwasdevelopedattheInstituteofAtmosphericPhysics.Twonumericalexperimentswereperformed,correspondingtotheAMIP-IandAMIP-IIsimulations,respectively.Themodelreasonablyreproducesthemajoraspectsoftheintraseasonaloscillation,includingthepropagatingpropertyandtheseasonaldifferencesinthetropics,thewavenumberstructureofISOintheglobe,andtheglobalcoincidenceintheinterannualvariationofISO.Comparisonoftheresultsbetweenthetwoexperimentssuggeststhatimprovementoftheboundaryforcingorconsideringtheair-seainteractionmayhelptoimprovethesimulationontheISOanditsinterannualvariability.

  • 标签: simulation INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION (ISO) COINCIDENCE
  • 简介:Basedonmonthlyrainfalldatafrom80stationsofChinafortheperiodofJanuary1951—February1985analysedintermsofthemaximumentropyspectrumandEEOF(extendedempiricalorthogonalfunction)techniques,thespatialandtemporalfeaturesofquasi-biennialoscillation(QBO)intherainfallareinvestigatedinadetailedmanner,withsomeresultsofinterestacquired.HighlyevidentistheQBOinrainfalloverChina,especiallythemidandlowerreachesoftheChangjiangRiver,theNEsideoftheQinghai-XizangPlateau,NorthChina,thesouthernpartofNEChina,areassouthoftheChangjiangRiverandoftheNanlingmountainregion,andmostofXinjiang.ThespatialwavedescribedbythefirstandsecondeigenvectorsofEEOFforeasternChinaisatypeofwavetravellingfromNEtoSW,indicatingthecycleofpatterns(inthesouthtonorthdirection):dryness(D)-wetness(W)-dryness(D)→southernW-northernslightD→W-D-W→southernD-northernslightW→D-W-Dagain,withthefloodedregionbetweentheChangjiangandHuangheRiversfortheD-W-DoccurrenceandwiththeChangjiangRiverasthedivisionforthesouthernW-northernslightDhappening.Thethirdandfourtheigenvectorsshowastandingwave-likefeatureforthesameeasternpart,indicatingthecycleofD-W-D→transition→W-D-W→transition→D-W-D,again,wherethetransitionmeansthegeneralweakeningofdroughtandfloodingandtheirsubsequentreversaldevelopment.Theamplitudesofthetimecoefficientsofthefirsttwoeigenvectorsareoppositeinthetrendoftheirchangestothoseofthenexttwoandshowaperiodof10—14years.

  • 标签: QBO PRECIPITATION EEOF